金融发展研究
金融髮展研究
금융발전연구
JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH
2015年
3期
72-77
,共6页
影子银行%经济增长%VAR模型
影子銀行%經濟增長%VAR模型
영자은행%경제증장%VAR모형
shadow banking%economic growth%VAR model
本文从信贷需求角度对我国1990—2014年影子银行规模进行系统测度，通过建立VAR模型对影子银行发展与经济增长的关系进行实证研究。结果显示：经济增长与影子银行发展存在单向因果关系，即经济增长促进了影子银行发展，反之则不成立。本文认为监管部门应加强对影子银行的监管，引导影子银行资金流向，建立预警监测系统以保证影子银行风险可控。
本文從信貸需求角度對我國1990—2014年影子銀行規模進行繫統測度，通過建立VAR模型對影子銀行髮展與經濟增長的關繫進行實證研究。結果顯示：經濟增長與影子銀行髮展存在單嚮因果關繫，即經濟增長促進瞭影子銀行髮展，反之則不成立。本文認為鑑管部門應加彊對影子銀行的鑑管，引導影子銀行資金流嚮，建立預警鑑測繫統以保證影子銀行風險可控。
본문종신대수구각도대아국1990—2014년영자은행규모진행계통측도，통과건립VAR모형대영자은행발전여경제증장적관계진행실증연구。결과현시：경제증장여영자은행발전존재단향인과관계，즉경제증장촉진료영자은행발전，반지칙불성립。본문인위감관부문응가강대영자은행적감관，인도영자은행자금류향，건립예경감측계통이보증영자은행풍험가공。
This article measures the scale of Chinese shadow banking from 1990-2014 in view of the credit de-mand, and empirically examines the relationship between the development of shadow banking and the economic growth by establishing VAR model. The results show that there is a unidirectional causality between the economic growth and the development of shadow banking,which means that the economic growth promotes the development of shadow banking, but the converse is not so;We suggest that the regulatory authority should strengthen the regulation of shadow banking, guide the capital flows and establish the early warning monitoring system to ensure the controlla-bility of risk.
