CAJ | 학술논문

城镇化的实质是产业结构的分工和演进。国际经验表明，工业化是推动城镇化的重要动力。然而，因地理位置和资源禀赋的特殊性，西藏工业发展式微，旅游业日新月异，逐渐形成“三二一”型产业结构。西藏难以复制传统以工业转移劳动力的城镇化模式。基于VAR模型的实证分析发现，无论是长期还是短期，西藏第三产业比第二产业更能影响城镇化进程。因此，能够吸纳更多劳动力、促进就业的产业结构服务化是西藏新型城镇化的主要动力。
성진화적실질시산업결구적분공화연진。국제경험표명，공업화시추동성진화적중요동력。연이，인지리위치화자원품부적특수성，서장공업발전식미，여유업일신월이，축점형성“삼이일”형산업결구。서장난이복제전통이공업전이노동력적성진화모식。기우VAR모형적실증분석발현，무론시장기환시단기，서장제삼산업비제이산업경능영향성진화진정。인차，능구흡납경다노동력、촉진취업적산업결구복무화시서장신형성진화적주요동력。
The essence of urbanization is the division of labor and the evolution of industrial structure. As inter?national experience shows, industrialization is the key power to promote the urbanization. However, because of its unique geography and natural resource, Tibet’s manufacturing falls behind other industry sectors while tour?ism develops rapidly. The service sector in Tibet is dominant with agriculture the least among three broad sec?tors. Tibet is difficult to follow the traditional mode of urbanization where industrial is the crucial motivation. The empirical analysis from VAR model finds that in Tibet the service sector affects more on the urbanization than industry sectors. In conclusion, service economy is the crucial factor to drive the urbanization in Tibet.