CAJ | 학술논문

以韩江流域潮安、横山和溪口3个代表性站点1959—2000年日流量数据为基础资料，选取4种边缘分布函数拟合各站点春、夏、秋、冬四季的径流距平百分率序列，并利用线性矩法估计参数，在此基础上采用4种Copula函数拟合春－夏、夏－秋、秋－冬、冬－春径流距平百分率序列，然后计算出各站点连旱连涝和旱涝交替这2类旱涝组合事件发生的概率，结果表明：1）基于Copula函数建立的联合分布模型可以较好地描述季节间连旱连涝和旱涝交替这2类旱涝组合事件发生的概率；2）潮安与溪口站夏－秋、秋－冬时段平均每4年发生一次连旱连涝的事件，春－夏、冬－春时段发生连旱和先旱后涝的概率均在10％左右；横山站秋冬季节平均每1.28年就发生一次连续干旱的事件。
이한강류역조안、횡산화계구3개대표성참점1959—2000년일류량수거위기출자료，선취4충변연분포함수의합각참점춘、하、추、동사계적경류거평백분솔서렬，병이용선성구법고계삼수，재차기출상채용4충Copula함수의합춘－하、하－추、추－동、동－춘경류거평백분솔서렬，연후계산출각참점련한련로화한로교체저2류한로조합사건발생적개솔，결과표명：1）기우Copula함수건립적연합분포모형가이교호지묘술계절간련한련로화한로교체저2류한로조합사건발생적개솔；2）조안여계구참하－추、추－동시단평균매4년발생일차련한련로적사건，춘－하、동－춘시단발생련한화선한후로적개솔균재10％좌우；횡산참추동계절평균매1.28년취발생일차련속간한적사건。
Based on the daily flow data of 1959—2000 at Chao′an, Hengshan and Xikou hydrological stations in the Hanjiang Basin , sequences of percentage of runoff anomalies ( Spring/Summer/Au-tumn/Winter ) were fitted by 4 marginal distribution functions .By L-moment method , the parameters of the 4 models were estimated.Four kinds of Copula functions (Gumbel-Hougaard, Clayton, Frank and AMH) were used to fit the sequences of percentage of runoff anomalies for spring -summer, summer-autumn , autumn-winter and winter -spring and the probability of multiple events of con-tinuous drought and flood as well as alternating ones were calculated .The results show that: 1 ) Joint distribution of the model set up based on Copula function can well describe the probability of multiple events of drought and flood between seasons .2 ) Long drought and long flood occur every four years <br> on average during summer -autumn and autumn -winter at Chao′an and Xikou , while the probability of long drought and drought before water logging is around 10%during spring-summer and winter -spring .Besides , long drought occurs every 1.28 years on average during autumn -winter in Hengs-han .