CAJ | 학술논문

风电功率短时骤降是大规模风电发电中需要有效处理的问题之一，如何描述风电功率短时骤降的极值分布尚缺乏有效方法。基于大量实测数据的分析，研究了不同时间尺度的风电功率下降幅值的高分位数变化的规律，发现在较短时间尺度下风电功率骤降极值与风电功率下降幅值的总体分布的标准差的比值较大。采用广义 Pareto分布描述风电功率短时骤降的概率分布的尾部，广义Pareto分布的T年重现水平适合作为风电功率骤降极值的指标。在不同并网容量和时间尺度利用广义Pareto分布对风电功率骤降极值进行建模，分析表明：并网容量的增加可以降低风电功率骤降极值与并网容量的比值，但在超过一定容量后有饱和效应，风电功率骤降极值随时间尺度的增加呈非线性缓慢增长。
풍전공솔단시취강시대규모풍전발전중수요유효처리적문제지일，여하묘술풍전공솔단시취강적겁치분포상결핍유효방법。기우대량실측수거적분석，연구료불동시간척도적풍전공솔하강폭치적고분위수변화적규률，발현재교단시간척도하풍전공솔취강겁치여풍전공솔하강폭치적총체분포적표준차적비치교대。채용엄의 Pareto분포묘술풍전공솔단시취강적개솔분포적미부，엄의Pareto분포적T년중현수평괄합작위풍전공솔취강겁치적지표。재불동병망용량화시간척도이용엄의Pareto분포대풍전공솔취강겁치진행건모，분석표명：병망용량적증가가이강저풍전공솔취강겁치여병망용량적비치，단재초과일정용량후유포화효응，풍전공솔취강겁치수시간척도적증가정비선성완만증장。
One of the major issues in large-scale wind power generation is dealing with wind power ramp-down events, but few common methods that properly describe the extreme value distribution are reported. Based on the field measurement, this paper studies statistical models of empirical quantileofwind power ramp-down magnitudes in different temporal scales. The ratio of the extreme ramp-down value tothestandard deviation of wind power fluctuations is relatively large in shorter temporal scales. It's found that generalized Pareto distribution is suitable to identify the upper-tail probability of wind power ramp-down. The T year return level of wind power ramp-down magnitudes can be used as index of extreme ramp-down. The paper then establishes the generalized Pareto distribution model under different installed capacity and temporal scales. Analysis shows that the ratio of extreme wind power ramp-down magnitude to installed capacity gets smaller with a trend of saturation when the installed capacity increases and there is anon-linear slow growth in extreme wind power ramp-down magnitude when temporal scale increases.