CAJ | 학술논문

以青藏构造块体为研究区域，采用以往利用图像信息方法预测 M7．0地震得到的较好的计算参数（网格尺度为1平方度，预测时间窗口为8年），系统计算了青藏构造块体1993年以来的“地震热点”图像，特别研究了两次于田 MS 7．3地震前后的图像信息演化过程，并通过ROC 方法和 R 值评分方法检验，对图像信息方法在该地区的预测效能进行评价．结果表明：①2008年3月21日于田 MS 7．3地震和2014年2月12日于田 MS 7．3地震均发生在地震热点上，且发生在平均发震概率随时间变化的峰值点年份．②在回溯性检验的时间段内青藏构造块体共发生9次 M≥7．0地震，其中6次地震前震中附近均有稳定的地震热点出现，包括两次于田 MS 7．3地震．1996年喀喇昆仑山口 MS 7．1地震及2008年汶川 MS 8．0地震只在个别预测时间窗内出现地震热点，并没有出现稳定的地震热点演化过程，而1996年丽江地震发生前震中附近则没有出现地震热点．该结果与前人研究结果存在差异，值得进一步研究．③ ROC检验和 R 值评分结果均显示图像信息方法在本文采用的模型参数下对大地震具有较好的中长期预测效果．本文还根据目前存在的地震热点给出了青藏高原块体2014年以后M7．0地震发生概率高的3个可能地区．
이청장구조괴체위연구구역，채용이왕이용도상신식방법예측 M7．0지진득도적교호적계산삼수（망격척도위1평방도，예측시간창구위8년），계통계산료청장구조괴체1993년이래적“지진열점”도상，특별연구료량차우전 MS 7．3지진전후적도상신식연화과정，병통과ROC 방법화 R 치평분방법검험，대도상신식방법재해지구적예측효능진행평개．결과표명：①2008년3월21일우전 MS 7．3지진화2014년2월12일우전 MS 7．3지진균발생재지진열점상，차발생재평균발진개솔수시간변화적봉치점년빈．②재회소성검험적시간단내청장구조괴체공발생9차 M≥7．0지진，기중6차지진전진중부근균유은정적지진열점출현，포괄량차우전 MS 7．3지진．1996년객나곤륜산구 MS 7．1지진급2008년문천 MS 8．0지진지재개별예측시간창내출현지진열점，병몰유출현은정적지진열점연화과정，이1996년려강지진발생전진중부근칙몰유출현지진열점．해결과여전인연구결과존재차이，치득진일보연구．③ ROC검험화 R 치평분결과균현시도상신식방법재본문채용적모형삼수하대대지진구유교호적중장기예측효과．본문환근거목전존재적지진열점급출료청장고원괴체2014년이후M7．0지진발생개솔고적3개가능지구．
In this paper,the Qinghai-Tibet tectonic block was chosen to be the study region,and calculating parameters with grid of 1°× 1° were employed according to the previous studies by pattern informatics (PI)method for M7.0 earthquake prediction.Hotspot diagrams of each prediction window since 1993have been obtained,and the relationship between the hotspots and the M>7.0 earthquakes during the prediction windows were studied.The predictability of PI method was tested by verification of receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve and R score.The results show that:① Both of the Yutian MS 7.3 earth-quakes in 2008 and in 2014 occurred in the region with the hotspots in the year with the highest average possibility.② Nine earthquakes of M≥7.0 occurred in the retrospective studied period since 1993.Six of the nine earthquakes could be predicted by the successive obvious hotspots imagine,including the two Yutian MS 7.3 earthquakes;two of the nine earthquakes might be predicted because hotspots only occurred in a single predicted window without successive evolu-tion process,including the Karakorum Pass MS 7.1 earthquake in 1996 and the Wenchuan MS 8.1 earthquake in 2008;one of the nine earthquakes,i.e.,Lijiang, Yunnan,MS 7.0 earthquake in 1996,could not be predicted because no hotspots appeared before the earthquake.The results associated with Wenchuan MS 8.0 earthquake in this paper are different from those of the previous studies,which may be caused by the differentce in selected study region and calculating param-eters.③ Test results of the predictability of PI method by ROC and R score show that positive prospect of PI method could be expected for long-term earth-quake prediction.According to the calculating results based on the parameters from this study,three regions with high possibility for potential M7.0 earth-quake risk in the future were given.