CAJ | 학술논문

依据安徽省2000-2012年工业行业能源消耗数据，分析各行业能源消耗总量及强度的时间变化规律，在此基础上将安徽省工业行业依据能耗强度分为高、中、低3个等级；同时采用 LMDI 分解法，将工业行业能源消耗的影响因素分解为强度效应、结构效应和生产效应。结果表明：安徽省各行业能耗总量逐年增加，能耗强度随经济发展呈幂指数衰减；总体来讲，生产效应是能耗增加的最重要的因素，强度效应是抑制能耗增加的关键因素，结构效应对于能耗变化的影响还未完全显现出来。另外，高、中、低三组行业中各影响因素的强弱变化出现明显差异，高耗能行业生产效应的增长是安徽省能耗增加的主要原因。因此，降低高能耗的能源消耗、促进中能耗组产业升级是安徽省当前工业改革的重点。
의거안휘성2000-2012년공업행업능원소모수거，분석각행업능원소모총량급강도적시간변화규률，재차기출상장안휘성공업행업의거능모강도분위고、중、저3개등급；동시채용 LMDI 분해법，장공업행업능원소모적영향인소분해위강도효응、결구효응화생산효응。결과표명：안휘성각행업능모총량축년증가，능모강도수경제발전정멱지수쇠감；총체래강，생산효응시능모증가적최중요적인소，강도효응시억제능모증가적관건인소，결구효응대우능모변화적영향환미완전현현출래。령외，고、중、저삼조행업중각영향인소적강약변화출현명현차이，고모능행업생산효응적증장시안휘성능모증가적주요원인。인차，강저고능모적능원소모、촉진중능모조산업승급시안휘성당전공업개혁적중점。
Based on energy consumption and economic growth data of Anhui Province’s industries in 2000-2012,industrial energy consumption and energy consumption intensity were analysed over the years, and industry was divided into higher,middle and lower grades by energy consumption intensity.Then, the growth effects of the total energy consumption were decomposed into production effect, structural effect and intensity effect using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI).Results showed that a signif-icant secular increase has occurred in the total energy consumption,while energy consumption intensity o-beys exponential damping law with economic growth;and the production effect is the most critical factor stimulating energy consumption growth,but the intensity effect is the only factor inhibiting energy con-sumption growth in Anhui and a primary reason for decreased energy consumption.It was found that the inhibition effect of the structural effects from structural adjustment has not been emerged. And the growth of the industry effect particularly the growth of high energy-consuming industries is the major fac-tor responsible for the growth of energy consumption.Therefore,the key point in current industrial re-form of Anhui provence is to reduce energy ansunption in high energy-consuming industries and to quicken the steps of upgrading middle energy-consuming industyies.