CAJ | 학술논문

针对利用移动电话用户的行为数据来对客户的流失进行预警这一电信客户流失管理的难点，首先利用相关分析、粗糙集及信息熵理论从众多的用户消费行为属性中提取出对用户状态有显著影响的客户特征行为属性作为推理证据，然后给出证据对应的BPA的客观确定方法，并在此基础上提出了基于规则强度集与证据推理的电信客户行为知识推理算法，最后通过实证验证了算法的有效性。
침대이용이동전화용호적행위수거래대객호적류실진행예경저일전신객호류실관리적난점，수선이용상관분석、조조집급신식적이론종음다적용호소비행위속성중제취출대용호상태유현저영향적객호특정행위속성작위추리증거，연후급출증거대응적BPA적객관학정방법，병재차기출상제출료기우규칙강도집여증거추리적전신객호행위지식추리산법，최후통과실증험증료산법적유효성。
How to use mobile-phone consumers'behavior data predicting the customers'churn is always important and diffi-cult in telecommunications churn management.Firstly, correlation analysis, rough set and entropy theory were employed to ex-tract the characteristic attributes from a large number of consumers behavior attributes, which have effected on the state of the customers'status significantly.The reasoning evidences were constituted by these characteristic attributes.Secondly, the method to calculate the BPA corresponding to every evidence was given out.Meanwhile, customers'behavior knowledge reasoning algo-rithm based on rule strength and evidential theory was also proposed.At last the valid of algorithm was verified by empirical anal-ysis.