CAJ | 학술논문

利用1996—2012年中国电力生产和消费数据，基于电力从生产到消费的全过程，建立电力碳排放驱动因素分解模型，并通过 LMDI 分解方法测算这些因素对碳排放影响的程度和方向。结果表明，1996—2012年，正向驱动因素主要有经济规模、生活消费、人口规模，贡献率分别109．51％、14．63％、7．92％；负向驱动因素主要是转换效率和电力强度，贡献率分别为－19．32％、－13．24％。经济规模效应是使得电力碳排放增加的最主要因素，而转换效率效应则是减少碳排放的最大力量。
이용1996—2012년중국전력생산화소비수거，기우전력종생산도소비적전과정，건립전력탄배방구동인소분해모형，병통과 LMDI 분해방법측산저사인소대탄배방영향적정도화방향。결과표명，1996—2012년，정향구동인소주요유경제규모、생활소비、인구규모，공헌솔분별109．51％、14．63％、7．92％；부향구동인소주요시전환효솔화전력강도，공헌솔분별위－19．32％、－13．24％。경제규모효응시사득전력탄배방증가적최주요인소，이전환효솔효응칙시감소탄배방적최대역량。
Using the data from the year 1996 to 2012,based on the entire process from production to consumption of elec﹣tricity,the paper builds a factor decomposition model of carbon emission from electricity by the logarithmic mean Divisia in﹣dex decomposition method.The results show that between 1996 and 2012,the positive drivers are economic development, cost of living and population size,and the contribution rate is 109.51%,14.63% and 7.92% respectively;the negative factors are conversion efficiency and electricity intensity,and the contribution rate is -19.32% and -13.24% respective﹣ly.The effect of economic development is the most important factor to increase carbon emissions,and conversion efficiency effect is the greatest strength to reduce carbon emissions.