CAJ | 학술논문

首先分析了中国储蓄率偏高的含义并对偏高的程度进行了测度，指出偏高程度不断上升是中国高储蓄率动态的主要特征事实。随后，建立一个扩展的缓冲存货模型，分析了存在信贷约束时，随机冲击对储蓄率的动态影响机制，指出该机制中存在着“金融加速器”效应，表现为居民在面临随机冲击时通过增加储蓄会获得流动性溢价，而且流动性溢价与随机冲击的程度成正比，因此该效应会放大储蓄率的波动。最后应用该模型对1978年至2013年中国储蓄率动态进行了数值模拟，发现该模型不仅能够解释中国储蓄率不断上升的长期趋势，也能够较好模拟其短期的周期性波动。
수선분석료중국저축솔편고적함의병대편고적정도진행료측도，지출편고정도불단상승시중국고저축솔동태적주요특정사실。수후，건립일개확전적완충존화모형，분석료존재신대약속시，수궤충격대저축솔적동태영향궤제，지출해궤제중존재착“금융가속기”효응，표현위거민재면림수궤충격시통과증가저축회획득류동성일개，이차류동성일개여수궤충격적정도성정비，인차해효응회방대저축솔적파동。최후응용해모형대1978년지2013년중국저축솔동태진행료수치모의，발현해모형불부능구해석중국저축솔불단상승적장기추세，야능구교호모의기단기적주기성파동。
In this paper we firstly analyze the meaning and the degree of China's high saving rate ,we declare that the increasing trend is the main stylized fact of China's high saving rate ,and w hich is also the key point to understand China's high saving rate puzzle .We then construct and expand a "Buffer -Stock"model to analyze the mechanism of China's saving rate when there exists borrowing constraint and stochastic shocks ,and depict a financial accelerator in that mechanism ,which says agents will increase savings w hen facing stochastic shocks ,and by w hich they can obtain liquidity premium and the premium is positively relates to the degree of stochastic shocks , so this mechanism will accelerate saving rate fluctuation .Finally ,we use this model to simulate China's saving rate fluctuations during 1978-2013 ,and find that this model can not only simulate the trend but also the cyclical components of China's saving rate .