CAJ | 학술논문

为提高枢纽机场航班延误预测的准确度，提出面向机场繁忙时间段差异的航班延误免疫预测算法。基于生物免疫机制，结合机场实时运行情况，对之前提出的免疫否定选择算法进行改进。根据机场在一天内不同时间段繁忙程度的差异性自适应地调整算法中检测器的参数，充分利用机场在各个时间段的不同繁忙程度对延误产生的影响，得到更加准确合理的预测结果。仿真结果表明，与原方法相比，采用改进后方法预测的结果误差率减小，自适应性更好，与实际情况的拟合度更高。
위제고추뉴궤장항반연오예측적준학도，제출면향궤장번망시간단차이적항반연오면역예측산법。기우생물면역궤제，결합궤장실시운행정황，대지전제출적면역부정선택산법진행개진。근거궤장재일천내불동시간단번망정도적차이성자괄응지조정산법중검측기적삼수，충분이용궤장재각개시간단적불동번망정도대연오산생적영향，득도경가준학합리적예측결과。방진결과표명，여원방법상비，채용개진후방법예측적결과오차솔감소，자괄응성경호，여실제정황적의합도경고。
To improve the accuracy of prediction for flight delays of hub airport,a immune prediction algorithm of airport flight delays based on difference at different busy time was proposed.Based on biological immune mechanism and combining the real-time operation of the airport,the immune negative selection algorithm that previously proposed was improved.According to difference of airport busy degree in different times of a day,the parameters of the algorithm of the detector were adjusted adap-tively,and the different effects on delay which resulted from the busy degree of airport in different times of a day were mode full use of,which made the prediction results more accurate and reasonable.The simulation results show that compared with the original method,the error rate using the improved method was reduced,and it has better adaptability.