CAJ | 학술논문

利用随机天气发生器（WeaGETS）模拟来宾市200年的逐日降水序列，将模拟结果与50年的实测资料对比，利用模拟序列分析降水对来宾甘蔗生产的影响。结果表明：模拟年均降水总量相对误差在0．7％～13．5％之间；模拟月降水量与实际相关性明显；日最大降水量及其变化趋势可信；模拟的各量级降水日数与实测相差0．2～14．3 d ；中雨以下比大雨以上的逐日降水机率的模拟效果好。总之，模拟降水与实测相近，可以用于气候统计分析。80％保证率下的甘蔗苗期、分蘖期、伸长期和成熟期降水量分别只占需水量的51．0％、52．7％、72．8％和38．5％。各生育期无旱机率21．0％～40．0％，轻旱机率9．5％～29．5％，中旱机率10．5％～26．5％，重旱机率7．5％～22．5％，特旱机率 6．0％～29．5％。来宾甘蔗干旱机率较大，最主要为春、秋旱，主要影响生育期为苗期、分蘖期和成熟期。
이용수궤천기발생기（WeaGETS）모의래빈시200년적축일강수서렬，장모의결과여50년적실측자료대비，이용모의서렬분석강수대래빈감자생산적영향。결과표명：모의년균강수총량상대오차재0．7％～13．5％지간；모의월강수량여실제상관성명현；일최대강수량급기변화추세가신；모의적각량급강수일수여실측상차0．2～14．3 d ；중우이하비대우이상적축일강수궤솔적모의효과호。총지，모의강수여실측상근，가이용우기후통계분석。80％보증솔하적감자묘기、분얼기、신장기화성숙기강수량분별지점수수량적51．0％、52．7％、72．8％화38．5％。각생육기무한궤솔21．0％～40．0％，경한궤솔9．5％～29．5％，중한궤솔10．5％～26．5％，중한궤솔7．5％～22．5％，특한궤솔 6．0％～29．5％。래빈감자간한궤솔교대，최주요위춘、추한，주요영향생육기위묘기、분얼기화성숙기。
Using the random weather generator (WeaGETS) to simulate the daily precipitation sequences in the past 200 years in Laibin ,the simulated results compared with the measured data in last 50 years .Application of the simulated sequence analyzed the effect of precipitation to the sugarcane production in Laibin .The results showed that :The relative error of the simulated annual average precipitation was between 0 .7% 13 .5% .The simulated monthly rainfall was obvi-ous correlation with the actuality .The daily maximal precipitation and its change trend were trust .The difference between simulated each level rainy days with the real measured ones was 0 .2 ~ 14 .3 days .The simulated effect of daily precipita-tion probability for below moderate rain was better than the above heavy rain .In short ,the simulated precipitation was close to the measured one .So it can be used in the climatic statistical analysis .Under the assurance ratio 80% ,the rainfall in each stage of seeding ,tillering ,jointing and maturation of sugarcane was accounted 51 .0% ,52 .7% ,72 .8%and 38 .5% of the stage crop water requirements ,respectively .In each growth stage ,the no drought probability was 21 .0% ~ 40 .0% ,the light drought probability was 9 .5% ~ 29 .5% ,the moderate drought probability was 10 .5% ~26 .5% ,the severe drought probability was 7 .5% ~ 22 .5% and the super drought probability was 6 .0% ~ 29 .5% .So in Laibin the drought probability was comparatively large .The most important drought was in Spring and Autumn and ma-jor impacted the growth stages of seedling ,tillering and maturity .