西北人口
西北人口
서북인구
NORTHWEST POPULATION JOURNAL
2015年
3期
95-99,105
,共6页
人口年龄结构%老龄化%可计算一般均衡模型%经济增长%经济结构
人口年齡結構%老齡化%可計算一般均衡模型%經濟增長%經濟結構
인구년령결구%노령화%가계산일반균형모형%경제증장%경제결구
Population Structure%Aging%Computable general equilibrium model%Economic growth%Economic structure
随着生育水平的下降与预期寿命的延长，我国人口年龄结构已发生了极大转变。人口年龄结构的变动势必对经济增长及结构产生重大影响。为此，本文模拟一种理想状态，采用CGE模型定量分析仅人口年龄结构变动（假定城乡人口总数保持基年水平不变）对我国经济发展的影响。模拟结果表明，仅人口年龄结构变动将使我国经济总量呈现出缩减的趋势，对消费结构与产业结构产生一定影响，同时使养老金与医疗保险支出迅速增加，进而增大累计债务，加重财政负担。这对我国制定适宜人口政策，把握产业结构发展方向，维持社会经济稳定、健康、持续发展具有一定启示意义。
隨著生育水平的下降與預期壽命的延長，我國人口年齡結構已髮生瞭極大轉變。人口年齡結構的變動勢必對經濟增長及結構產生重大影響。為此，本文模擬一種理想狀態，採用CGE模型定量分析僅人口年齡結構變動（假定城鄉人口總數保持基年水平不變）對我國經濟髮展的影響。模擬結果錶明，僅人口年齡結構變動將使我國經濟總量呈現齣縮減的趨勢，對消費結構與產業結構產生一定影響，同時使養老金與醫療保險支齣迅速增加，進而增大纍計債務，加重財政負擔。這對我國製定適宜人口政策，把握產業結構髮展方嚮，維持社會經濟穩定、健康、持續髮展具有一定啟示意義。
수착생육수평적하강여예기수명적연장，아국인구년령결구이발생료겁대전변。인구년령결구적변동세필대경제증장급결구산생중대영향。위차，본문모의일충이상상태，채용CGE모형정량분석부인구년령결구변동（가정성향인구총수보지기년수평불변）대아국경제발전적영향。모의결과표명，부인구년령결구변동장사아국경제총량정현출축감적추세，대소비결구여산업결구산생일정영향，동시사양로금여의료보험지출신속증가，진이증대루계채무，가중재정부담。저대아국제정괄의인구정책，파악산업결구발전방향，유지사회경제은정、건강、지속발전구유일정계시의의。
As the decline of fertility and the extension of life expectancy,the population age structure has had the great change. The population age structure changes must have a significant impact on the economic growth and economic structure. To this end,this article assumes an ideal situation that urban and rural population remain constant in base year level,it quantitatively analyzes the impact of changes of only population age structure using the CGE model. Simulation study shows that the only population age structure changes make the economy show a reduced tendency;also have certain influence on consumption structure and industrial structure,make pension insurance and medical insurance expenditure increase rapidly at the same time,thus increase the accumulated debt and the financial burden. It is important significance for making population policy, grasping the development trend of industrial structure,maintaining economy stable and healthy sustainable development.
