CAJ | 학술논문

研究了互联网突发事件中的舆情进化机制和信息监管，由于网民行为具有观察、模仿和学习的特征，与进化博弈理论中的有限理性假设相符合，本研究将一些社会热点话题作为博弈要素的回报并在此情况下定义了“网民接受度”，同时构建了舆情的进化方程式。此后将理论模型应用于一个真实的互联网突发事件案例(即“2.26一大学生为救落水儿童溺亡”)中的舆情进化过程，并基于数值模拟结果讨论了互联网信息监管和对社会事务采取控制手段在舆情进化过程中所起作用。
연구료호련망돌발사건중적여정진화궤제화신식감관，유우망민행위구유관찰、모방화학습적특정，여진화박혁이론중적유한이성가설상부합，본연구장일사사회열점화제작위박혁요소적회보병재차정황하정의료“망민접수도”，동시구건료여정적진화방정식。차후장이론모형응용우일개진실적호련망돌발사건안례(즉“2.26일대학생위구낙수인동닉망”)중적여정진화과정，병기우수치모의결과토론료호련망신식감관화대사회사무채취공제수단재여정진화과정중소기작용。
This paper studies evolutionary mechanism and information supervision of public opinions in Internet emergencies. The netizens ' behaviors are characterized by observation, imitation and learning, which well fits the hypotheses of bounded rationality in evolutionary games. In this paper, we define"netizen acceptance degree" in cases of some social hot topics as the payoff in factor games, and build the evolutionary equation of public opinions, which is the infectious diseases diffusion model with changing population size. After that, we ap-ply the theoretical model to the evolutionary course of public opinions in a real Internet emergency case, i. e. , the"2. 26 Self-sacrifice E-vent" in China. The effects of Internet information supervision and control measures for social affairs on the evolutionary course of public opinions are discussed based on results of numerical simulation.