CAJ | 학술논문

借助中国2001—2012年省级城镇面板数据，运用动态面板的广义矩估计方法（ GMM），研究城镇居民通信消费的影响因素。研究结果显示，城镇居民通信消费存在较强的惯性作用，城镇居民人均收入、通信行业消费价格指数、实际利率均对居民通信消费有显著的正向影响，劳动年龄人口的人均个人所得税、恩格尔系数、少儿抚养比、老年抚养比均对通信消费有负向的显著影响。研究结论表明，促进经济发展，提高居民收入是推动通信行业进一步发展的主要动力；同时，也不能忽视人口的因素，要提高多元化的服务内容，满足不同经济群体、不同年龄段人群的通信消费。
차조중국2001—2012년성급성진면판수거，운용동태면판적엄의구고계방법（ GMM），연구성진거민통신소비적영향인소。연구결과현시，성진거민통신소비존재교강적관성작용，성진거민인균수입、통신행업소비개격지수、실제리솔균대거민통신소비유현저적정향영향，노동년령인구적인균개인소득세、은격이계수、소인무양비、노년무양비균대통신소비유부향적현저영향。연구결론표명，촉진경제발전，제고거민수입시추동통신행업진일보발전적주요동력；동시，야불능홀시인구적인소，요제고다원화적복무내용，만족불동경제군체、불동년령단인군적통신소비。
Using the method of generalized method of moments ( GMM) , the influencing factors of China’ s ur-ban residents’ communication consumption is analyzed with the panel data from Chinese provinces during the pe-riod of 2001—2012.The research results show that communication consumption of urban residents has a strong inertial effect.The urban residents’ per-capita income, the consumption price index of the communication in-dustry and the actual interest rate all have significant positive effects on communication consumption.However, the per-capita personal income tax of working-age population, Engel’ s Coefficient, the children dependency ra-tio and the elderly dependency ratio all have negative effects on communication consumption.What’ s more, the results imply that promoting economic development and improving residents’ income are the major impetus for the further development of the communication industry.At the same time, the development of communication in-dustry also cannot ignore the factor of population, and diversified service should be developed to meet the com-munication consumption of different economic groups and age groups.