CAJ | 학술논문

基于技术预测的专利分析概念模型,对转基因技术从技术发展方向、发展水平和发展潜力三个方面进行预测。研究发现,在转基因技术中,C12N、C07K、C12Q和A01H 领域是转基因技术未来发展的重点技术领域；其中, C12N领域技术已经处于成长末期,将逐渐向成熟期过度,未来发展潜力受限；C07K和C12Q领域技术处于成长期的快速发展阶段,未来还有很大的发展潜力；A01H领域技术刚刚步入成长阶段,虽然未来有较大的发展潜力,但是变数较大,企业需要密切关注其变化趋势并慎重决策。
기우기술예측적전리분석개념모형,대전기인기술종기술발전방향、발전수평화발전잠력삼개방면진행예측。연구발현,재전기인기술중,C12N、C07K、C12Q화A01H 영역시전기인기술미래발전적중점기술영역；기중, C12N영역기술이경처우성장말기,장축점향성숙기과도,미래발전잠력수한；C07K화C12Q영역기술처우성장기적쾌속발전계단,미래환유흔대적발전잠력；A01H영역기술강강보입성장계단,수연미래유교대적발전잠력,단시변수교대,기업수요밀절관주기변화추세병신중결책。
Technology prediction of transgenic technology development is completed based on the conceptual model of patent analysis from 3 aspects of transgenic technology:development direction, development level and development potential of technology. It is showed that C12N, C07K, C12Q and A01H areas are the focused areas for future technology development for transgenic technology, in which the C12N field of technology has already entered into the stage of the end period of growth and has limited potentiality for future development;C07K and C12Q have great potential for future development since they are currently in the growth period of rapid development;A01H has great potential also but has possible variable situation and companies need to pay close attention to its changes and make careful decisions.