西北人口
西北人口
서북인구
NORTHWEST POPULATION JOURNAL
2015年
3期
59-64
,共6页
政策时滞%居家养老政策%省级%离散时间logistic模型
政策時滯%居傢養老政策%省級%離散時間logistic模型
정책시체%거가양로정책%성급%리산시간logistic모형
policy lag%home-based care for aged%provincial%discrete-time logistic model
政策时滞指公共政策从公开承诺到付诸实现的时间间隔，不同类型的政策时滞具有不同的特点。我国居家养老政策自中央正式颁布以来，各省份的发展情况不尽相同。以中央到省级居家养老政策时滞为因变量，利用Kaplan-Meyer生存函数分布，分析我国中央至省级居家养老政策时滞的一般性规律，利用离散时间logistic模型对影响省级居家养老政策时滞的因素进行回归分析，结果显示我国省级居家养老政策产出高峰期为中央政策出台后的20-40个月之间。老年人口规模、医疗支出、城市建设条件等外部客体因素对政策时滞影响较小，而行政类型、所辖地级市数量，综合经济指标等因素影响显著。其中，直辖市的政策时滞最短，民族自治省份政策时滞时间较长，平均政策时滞时间为31个月。中央-省级居家养老政策时滞主要受政府内部因素影响，单纯的加大拨款和补贴力度并不能达到减少居家养老政策时滞的效果。居家养老政策出台过程的公开化、透明化、注重结合地区发展条件，才是消除政策时滞内部性，提高政策效率的可行途径。
政策時滯指公共政策從公開承諾到付諸實現的時間間隔，不同類型的政策時滯具有不同的特點。我國居傢養老政策自中央正式頒佈以來，各省份的髮展情況不儘相同。以中央到省級居傢養老政策時滯為因變量，利用Kaplan-Meyer生存函數分佈，分析我國中央至省級居傢養老政策時滯的一般性規律，利用離散時間logistic模型對影響省級居傢養老政策時滯的因素進行迴歸分析，結果顯示我國省級居傢養老政策產齣高峰期為中央政策齣檯後的20-40箇月之間。老年人口規模、醫療支齣、城市建設條件等外部客體因素對政策時滯影響較小，而行政類型、所轄地級市數量，綜閤經濟指標等因素影響顯著。其中，直轄市的政策時滯最短，民族自治省份政策時滯時間較長，平均政策時滯時間為31箇月。中央-省級居傢養老政策時滯主要受政府內部因素影響，單純的加大撥款和補貼力度併不能達到減少居傢養老政策時滯的效果。居傢養老政策齣檯過程的公開化、透明化、註重結閤地區髮展條件，纔是消除政策時滯內部性，提高政策效率的可行途徑。
정책시체지공공정책종공개승낙도부제실현적시간간격，불동류형적정책시체구유불동적특점。아국거가양로정책자중앙정식반포이래，각성빈적발전정황불진상동。이중앙도성급거가양로정책시체위인변량，이용Kaplan-Meyer생존함수분포，분석아국중앙지성급거가양로정책시체적일반성규률，이용리산시간logistic모형대영향성급거가양로정책시체적인소진행회귀분석，결과현시아국성급거가양로정책산출고봉기위중앙정책출태후적20-40개월지간。노년인구규모、의료지출、성시건설조건등외부객체인소대정책시체영향교소，이행정류형、소할지급시수량，종합경제지표등인소영향현저。기중，직할시적정책시체최단，민족자치성빈정책시체시간교장，평균정책시체시간위31개월。중앙-성급거가양로정책시체주요수정부내부인소영향，단순적가대발관화보첩력도병불능체도감소거가양로정책시체적효과。거가양로정책출태과정적공개화、투명화、주중결합지구발전조건，재시소제정책시체내부성，제고정책효솔적가행도경。
Policy lag refers to time intervals of public policy from commitment to implement. Provincial policy of home-based for aged has a clear statistical distribution characteristic ,Since the home-based for aged policy formally promulgated ,the provinces development are not the same. Assuming policy lag of home-based for aged as the dependent variable ,make an re-gression analysis using the Kaplan-Meyer survival model and the discrete time logistic model. The results show that the provincial home-care policy for aged output 20-40 months later than the central government. And policy lag is affected by external objective factors including population of the elderly,medical expenditure,city construction conditions, among them , administrative type,the scale of city,comprehensive economic indicators have significant influences. The municipality directly under the central government has the shortest time-delay ,and the ethnic autonomous provinces has 31 months average time-delay. Only increasing the intensity and subsidies can not reduce the home-cared for aged policy lag. The feasible way is to improve the openness and transparency of the policy process ,and the design of province policy should attache more impor-tance in regional conditions so that the effect of home-care policies can be peomoted.
