CAJ | 학술논문

为直观描述围堰运行期导流风险率函数，准确进行施工导流风险评估，利用洪峰和洪量联合分布，以熵最大为原则推求最高水位分布密度函数，结合导流建筑物泄流不确定性，随机模拟堰前最高水位序列，提出了基于堰前最高水位最大熵分布的施工导流风险模拟方法，并计算导流风险率。实例分析表明，该方法模拟的施工洪水能较好地反映实测洪水系列，所推求的堰前最高水位分布密度函数合理，能弥补传统施工导流风险模拟难以反映围堰使用近期实测洪水过程真实情况的不足，在保证准确性的前提下提高了风险计算效率与普适性，可为施工导流风险分析与方案决策提供依据。
위직관묘술위언운행기도류풍험솔함수，준학진행시공도류풍험평고，이용홍봉화홍량연합분포，이적최대위원칙추구최고수위분포밀도함수，결합도류건축물설류불학정성，수궤모의언전최고수위서렬，제출료기우언전최고수위최대적분포적시공도류풍험모의방법，병계산도류풍험솔。실례분석표명，해방법모의적시공홍수능교호지반영실측홍수계렬，소추구적언전최고수위분포밀도함수합리，능미보전통시공도류풍험모의난이반영위언사용근기실측홍수과정진실정황적불족，재보증준학성적전제하제고료풍험계산효솔여보괄성，가위시공도류풍험분석여방안결책제공의거。
Based on maximum entropy distribution of the highest water level in weir, in this paper we present a simulation method of construction diversion risk that intuitively describes the diversion risk rate function of operational cofferdam and accurately assess construction diversion risk. In our method, the highest water level distribution density function is derived by using the distribution of flood peak and flood volume with the maximum entropy principle. Meanwhile, combining the discharge uncertainty of diversion buildings, the method stochastically simulates the highest water level sequence in weir. Then the method is employed to calculate diversion risk rate. The analysis shows that the simulated construction flood can well reflect the measured flood series. Moreover, the derived distribution density function of the highest water level in weir is reasonable, which can fully reflect true situation of recent measured flood in weir compared with traditional methods. On the premise of accuracy, this method improves risk calculation efficiency and applicability. Therefore, the method provides support for risk analysis and program decisions of construction diversion.