CAJ | 학술논문

深圳市在空间规划上长期坚持多中心结构，但在土地资源紧张和机动化交通需求激增的情况下，其城市空间发展趋势具有一定不确定性。因此，有必要对深圳市空间发展趋势开展多情景假设下的交通评估。在探讨快速轨道交通对多中心空间结构引导作用的基础上，构建单中心极化发展和多中心均衡发展两种空间结构情景，以及有无快速轨道交通两种交通方案。从土地利用与交通一体化、环保低碳、以人为本、关键走廊交通需求四个方面选取交通评估指标，定量化评估四种情景对应的交通特征。结果表明，城市空间结构对评估指标的影响远大于快速轨道交通的影响，而快速轨道交通主导的多中心空间结构是深圳市未来发展的理想模式。
심수시재공간규화상장기견지다중심결구，단재토지자원긴장화궤동화교통수구격증적정황하，기성시공간발전추세구유일정불학정성。인차，유필요대심수시공간발전추세개전다정경가설하적교통평고。재탐토쾌속궤도교통대다중심공간결구인도작용적기출상，구건단중심겁화발전화다중심균형발전량충공간결구정경，이급유무쾌속궤도교통량충교통방안。종토지이용여교통일체화、배보저탄、이인위본、관건주랑교통수구사개방면선취교통평고지표，정양화평고사충정경대응적교통특정。결과표명，성시공간결구대평고지표적영향원대우쾌속궤도교통적영향，이쾌속궤도교통주도적다중심공간결구시심수시미래발전적이상모식。
Although Shenzhen has endorsed the multi-center development policy for the past many years, how the urban area will be shaped in future is uncertain due to the severe shortage of land use and rapid motorized travel demand increase. Thus, this paper evaluates the transportation system performance under various urban spacial development scenarios. By discussing the impact of rapid rail transit on the multi-center development, the paper proposes two urban development alternatives, single city center or multiple city center, and two transportation plans, with and without rapid rail transit service, which results in four scenarios, respectively. The transportation performance of each scenario is evaluated by four quantitative indicators, land use and integrated transportation, environmental protection and low-carbon, people-orient-ed service, travel demand within key corridors. The results show that the effect of urban spatial pattern is much bigger than that of rapid rail transit service. Rapid rail transit-oriented multi-center development is the most ideal growth pattern for Shenzhen in the future.