CAJ | 학술논문

自高速铁路(High-speed Rail，HSR，以下简称“高铁”)开始运营以来，尽管已历经近50年的发展并且在全球范围内拥有17166 km里程，但是对于高铁需求量的本质仍然所知甚少。诸多信息表明，全球高铁建设项目在期望可达性、经济及环境效益以及对高铁预测需求量相对匮乏的跟踪记录方面存在明显的空白。针对出行方式替代与诱发交通需求的影响，本文旨在填补高铁开通后需求方面的空白，从而助力未来的高铁系统规划研究过程。目前在高铁需求方面没有足够的实证，并且现有实证严重受到线路具体特征影响，尽管存在方法的局限，但是呈现出的实证可促使高铁成为一种性能更优的交通工具。研究表明，在高铁运营后的最初几年，只有10%~20%的需求量是诱发交通需求，其余均来自于出行方式替代。在多数情况下，大部分高铁乘客之前使用传统铁路出行，从航空、小汽车以及长途客车转移至高铁的乘客量比例较低。
자고속철로(High-speed Rail，HSR，이하간칭“고철”)개시운영이래，진관이력경근50년적발전병차재전구범위내옹유17166 km리정，단시대우고철수구량적본질잉연소지심소。제다신식표명，전구고철건설항목재기망가체성、경제급배경효익이급대고철예측수구량상대궤핍적근종기록방면존재명현적공백。침대출행방식체대여유발교통수구적영향，본문지재전보고철개통후수구방면적공백，종이조력미래적고철계통규화연구과정。목전재고철수구방면몰유족구적실증，병차현유실증엄중수도선로구체특정영향，진관존재방법적국한，단시정현출적실증가촉사고철성위일충성능경우적교통공구。연구표명，재고철운영후적최초궤년，지유10%~20%적수구량시유발교통수구，기여균래자우출행방식체대。재다수정황하，대부분고철승객지전사용전통철로출행，종항공、소기차이급장도객차전이지고철적승객량비례교저。
To date, relatively little is known about the nature of the demand for high-speed rail (HSR) soon after inauguration of the services, despite close to 50-year experience of HSR operation and 17 166 km of HSR network around the world. This is a real lacuna given the scale of HSR construction around the world, the amount of resources committed to it, the desired accessibility, economic and environmental ef-fects associated with HSR development and the relatively poor track record of forecasting demand for HSR services. Focusing on mode substitution and induced demand effects, this review aims to fill the gap in knowledge about the ex-post demand for HSR services in order to facilitate a learning process for the planning of the future HSR network. Although there is not much evidence on the demand for HSR services and existing evidence is largely influenced by route-specific characteristics, a methodological limitation that must be acknowledged, the evidence presented allows a better characterisation of HSR as a mode of transport. The review shows that the demand for HSR a few years after inauguration is about 10–20%in-duced demand and the rest is attributed to mode substitution. In terms of mode substitution, in most cases the majority of HSR passengers have used the conventional rail before. Substitution from aircraft, car and coach is generally more modest.