CAJ | 학술논문

为了在微观层次上正确地描述各土地单元之间的相互作用，本次研究引入基于地理特征CA的城市土地利用演化仿真模型(CFCA－Urban)，以城市生态机制理论为基础，结合城市土地利用演化的具体情况，首先在城市土地利用演化仿真模型(CFCA－Urban)思想的基础上，引入蒙特卡罗随机方法，借助“元胞单元生命值”和“元胞状态突变”等概念，利用可行方法获取元胞单元的交通属性，充分考虑城市生态景观、自组织机制和人为干预等宏观因素对原有模型思想进行了扩展，在接下来的工作中运用GIS技术将模型思想进行了软件实现，最后以深圳特区作为研究区域对2000~2010年土地利用时空演化进行了仿真和模拟。实证结果表明，城市土地利用演化仿真模型(CFCA－Urban)对于我们理解城市土地利用演化的发展规律和特征，指导城市决策者的实际工作具有重要的意义。客观而言，实证预测结果并不能作为深圳特区城市发展的精确预测，而是提供了一种大致的可能性。模型思想虽做扩展，但CFCA－Urban模型也还处于尝试性研究阶段，模型的精度和真实性尚待提高，留下了巨大的后续研究空间。
위료재미관층차상정학지묘술각토지단원지간적상호작용，본차연구인입기우지리특정CA적성시토지이용연화방진모형(CFCA－Urban)，이성시생태궤제이론위기출，결합성시토지이용연화적구체정황，수선재성시토지이용연화방진모형(CFCA－Urban)사상적기출상，인입몽특잡라수궤방법，차조“원포단원생명치”화“원포상태돌변”등개념，이용가행방법획취원포단원적교통속성，충분고필성시생태경관、자조직궤제화인위간예등굉관인소대원유모형사상진행료확전，재접하래적공작중운용GIS기술장모형사상진행료연건실현，최후이심수특구작위연구구역대2000~2010년토지이용시공연화진행료방진화모의。실증결과표명，성시토지이용연화방진모형(CFCA－Urban)대우아문리해성시토지이용연화적발전규률화특정，지도성시결책자적실제공작구유중요적의의。객관이언，실증예측결과병불능작위심수특구성시발전적정학예측，이시제공료일충대치적가능성。모형사상수주확전，단CFCA－Urban모형야환처우상시성연구계단，모형적정도화진실성상대제고，류하료거대적후속연구공간。
In order to explore interactions among land cells on micro level, this paper conducted extended research on simulating urban land use evolvement based on GeoFeature - CA(CFCA-Urban). After a brief introduction of GeoFeature - CA model, much improvement has been made based on theories of ecological mechanism and CFCA-Urban. It proceeds as follows. First, theories of the Monte Carlo method as well as conceptions of "the life of the land cell" and "mutation of land cell state" are briefly introduced. Then attributes of traffic are obtained by appropriate method. Urban ecological sight, self-organizing mechanism and man-made control are affected the urban evolvement and are all taken into account so as to expand the core thought of GeoFeature-CA model, followed by the implement and software application assisted by GIS technology and GIS platform. Lastly, Shenzhen was as a case study and it's land use evolvement of 2000 - 2010 was simulated. Result of demonstration shows that simulating and predicating urban land use evolvement using CFCA-Urban model is great practical importance. It helps to understand rules and characteristics of urban land use evolvement and serves as guidance in urban planning. Demonstration and predication provide a possibility of urban development in inside the Special Economic Zone of Shenzhen thought not exactly precisely. Although some progresses have been made in CFCA-Urban model due to the extended research, it should be noted that research on CFCA-Urban model is still at tentative stage. Improvements in precision and authenticity of CFCA-Urban mode have yet to be addressed and should be direction of further research.