CAJ | 학술논문

针对传统系统可靠性分析方法在处理模糊信息方面的不足，建立了基于区间三角模糊贝叶斯网络的多态系统可靠性分析方法。通过区间三角模糊子集来描述根节点故障率；基于区间三角模糊子集，构建了区间三角模糊多态贝叶斯网络模型；研究了区间三角模糊多态贝叶斯网络可靠性分析算法，给出了求解叶节点故障模糊可能性与去模糊根节点后验概率的计算方法。最后，对塔机倾覆事故进行了可靠性分析，验证了该方法的有效性。
침대전통계통가고성분석방법재처리모호신식방면적불족，건립료기우구간삼각모호패협사망락적다태계통가고성분석방법。통과구간삼각모호자집래묘술근절점고장솔；기우구간삼각모호자집，구건료구간삼각모호다태패협사망락모형；연구료구간삼각모호다태패협사망락가고성분석산법，급출료구해협절점고장모호가능성여거모호근절점후험개솔적계산방법。최후，대탑궤경복사고진행료가고성분석，험증료해방법적유효성。
In order to overcome the shortages of dealing with fuzzy information in traditional sys-tem reliability analysis methods,this paper proposed a new method of reliability analysis method based on interval triangular fuzzy multi-state Bayesian network.An interval triangular fuzzy subset was built to describe fault rate of root nodes.A model of the interval triangular fuzzy multi-states Bayesian net-works was built based on the interval triangular fuzzy subset.The calculation methods of leaf node fault probability were proposed,and the deblured posterior probability was researched by the reliabili-ty analysis algorithms of interval triangular fuzzy multi-state Bayesian network.At last,the method was applied in the reliability analysis of tower crane overturning accident,which shows that the pro-posed method is feasibility.