CAJ | 학술논문

本文借鉴Alter、Beyer（2014）的思想，将各省份地区经济周期的波动性作为系统性金融风险的代理变量，将额外的溢出效应定义为传染性，并引入控制变量来控制共同因素影响，使用包含外生变量的向量自回归模型的广义脉冲响应函数的变化来考察各省份之间系统性金融风险的传染性。结果表明，我国的系统性金融风险存在明显的非对称传染特性，实施传染的主要地区为东部经济发达的省份，受传染的主要地区为经济发展模式较为单一的省份。一些省份在一定区域内具有较强的交叉传染性。
본문차감Alter、Beyer（2014）적사상，장각성빈지구경제주기적파동성작위계통성금융풍험적대리변량，장액외적일출효응정의위전염성，병인입공제변량래공제공동인소영향，사용포함외생변량적향량자회귀모형적엄의맥충향응함수적변화래고찰각성빈지간계통성금융풍험적전염성。결과표명，아국적계통성금융풍험존재명현적비대칭전염특성，실시전염적주요지구위동부경제발체적성빈，수전염적주요지구위경제발전모식교위단일적성빈。일사성빈재일정구역내구유교강적교차전염성。
This paper internalizing Alter and Beyer’s idea, using fluctuation of business cycle in different provinces as proxy variables of systematic financial risk , defining additional spillover effect as infectivity , introducing control variables to control factors together, studied infectivity of provincial systematic financial risks by using the change of GIRF of VAR containing exogenous variable. The result showed that there were obvious asymmetric transmission characteristics in the systematic financial risks in China. The main regions which were infectious are developed eastern provinces , while the regions which were infected are the provinces with onefold economic development mode. Moreover , there was strong cross infection in certain areas of some provinces.