CAJ | 학술논문

负荷预测应该充分考虑负荷曲线本身的非平稳性和非线性，局域波通过分解负荷能得到一系列平稳化分量，但是仍存在端点效应。为了降低负荷序列的非线性来提高预测精度，提出在局域波分解的基础上引入四中点估计法来减弱端点效应带来的误差，然后在分析各分量特征和最小二乘支持向量机的基础上，对各分量建立最优参数下的DEMD-LSSVM预测模型，重构得到预测值。最后针对某电网的实际电力负荷分别进行普通休息日和特殊节假日的实例仿真，并与DEMD-SVM预测模型进行对比分析，验证DEMD-LSSVM模型的实用性和有效性。
부하예측응해충분고필부하곡선본신적비평은성화비선성，국역파통과분해부하능득도일계렬평은화분량，단시잉존재단점효응。위료강저부하서렬적비선성래제고예측정도，제출재국역파분해적기출상인입사중점고계법래감약단점효응대래적오차，연후재분석각분량특정화최소이승지지향량궤적기출상，대각분량건립최우삼수하적DEMD-LSSVM예측모형，중구득도예측치。최후침대모전망적실제전력부하분별진행보통휴식일화특수절가일적실례방진，병여DEMD-SVM예측모형진행대비분석，험증DEMD-LSSVM모형적실용성화유효성。
Load forecasting should fully consider non-stationary and nonlinear of the load .Local wave can get a series of stationary components by decomposing the load , but the problem of end effects still exists .In order to reduce the nonlinear of load sequence to improve the accuracy of load forecasting , this paper introduces the four-midpoint estima-tion method to reduce the error on end effect based on the decomposition of local wave method .According to the char-acteristics of each component and least squares support vector machine , the paper uses optimal parameters to establish the DEMD-LSSVM prediction model for each component , then reconstructing to obtain the prediction results .Finally the paper takes actual load of power grid to make simulations on normal rest days and special holiday , compared with DEMD-SVM prediction model , to prove the validity and practicability of DEMD-LSSVM prediction model .