郑州轻工业学院学报(自然科学版)
鄭州輕工業學院學報(自然科學版)
정주경공업학원학보(자연과학판)
JOURNAL OF ZHENGZHOU INSTITUTE OF LIGHT INDUSTRY(NATURAL SCIENCE)
2015年
2期
105-108
,共4页
谷国玲%戴秀英%刘杰
穀國玲%戴秀英%劉傑
곡국령%대수영%류걸
猪肉价格预测%GM(1,1)模型%M 次累加%残差校正%等维递补法
豬肉價格預測%GM(1,1)模型%M 次纍加%殘差校正%等維遞補法
저육개격예측%GM(1,1)모형%M 차루가%잔차교정%등유체보법
prediction of pork price%GM(1,1)model%M accumulating generation operator(AGO)%residu-al correction%dimensions additional method
针对猪肉价格受多因素影响、难以运用固定的数学模型进行精确预测的问题,提出一种改进的GM(1,1)模型。该模型主要通过改善 GM(1,1)的背景值和运用 M 次累加的方法对灰色模型进行残差校正,进而把猪肉价格变化当作一个灰色系统,采用等维递补的方法预测猪肉价格的发展走势。以吉林省猪肉价格为依据,用改进的 GM(1,1)模型预测未来猪肉的价格较原始 GM(1,1)模型预测精度更好。这表明,改进模型对于提高生产者的收益、促进猪肉市场的良性发展具有现实意义。
針對豬肉價格受多因素影響、難以運用固定的數學模型進行精確預測的問題,提齣一種改進的GM(1,1)模型。該模型主要通過改善 GM(1,1)的揹景值和運用 M 次纍加的方法對灰色模型進行殘差校正,進而把豬肉價格變化噹作一箇灰色繫統,採用等維遞補的方法預測豬肉價格的髮展走勢。以吉林省豬肉價格為依據,用改進的 GM(1,1)模型預測未來豬肉的價格較原始 GM(1,1)模型預測精度更好。這錶明,改進模型對于提高生產者的收益、促進豬肉市場的良性髮展具有現實意義。
침대저육개격수다인소영향、난이운용고정적수학모형진행정학예측적문제,제출일충개진적GM(1,1)모형。해모형주요통과개선 GM(1,1)적배경치화운용 M 차루가적방법대회색모형진행잔차교정,진이파저육개격변화당작일개회색계통,채용등유체보적방법예측저육개격적발전주세。이길림성저육개격위의거,용개진적 GM(1,1)모형예측미래저육적개격교원시 GM(1,1)모형예측정도경호。저표명,개진모형대우제고생산자적수익、촉진저육시장적량성발전구유현실의의。
Aiming at the price of pork influenced by many factors,and the difficulty to use fixed mathemati-cal model to predict them accurately,an improved GM(1,1)model was presented. This model used improved background value and M accumulating generation operator( AGO)method residual correction, took the changes of pork’s price as a gray system,and used dimensions additional methods to predict the development trend of the price. The prediction accuracy was better. Taking the pork price in Jilin Province as an example,using improved GM(1,1)model to forecast the future price of pork had practical signifi-cance for improving the producer income and promoting benign development of pork market .