CAJ | 학술논문

2011年中国金融宏观调控引入了一个新的监测分析指标———社会融资规模，并将其作为我国货币政策的中间目标。在理论综述的基础上，选取2002年第一季度至2014年第三季度的社会融资规模（SFS）、国内生产总值（GDP）和居民消费价格指数（CPI）数据，建立 VAR 模型，通过协整检验、格兰杰因果检验分析、脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解分析的方法对我国 GDP、CPI 对社会融资规模的影响进行实证分析。结果表明，国内生产总值对社会融资规模有一定的正向作用，而居民消费价格指数对社会融资规模有显著的负向作用，三者之间存在长期均衡关系。
2011년중국금융굉관조공인입료일개신적감측분석지표———사회융자규모，병장기작위아국화폐정책적중간목표。재이론종술적기출상，선취2002년제일계도지2014년제삼계도적사회융자규모（SFS）、국내생산총치（GDP）화거민소비개격지수（CPI）수거，건립 VAR 모형，통과협정검험、격란걸인과검험분석、맥충향응함수분석화방차분해분석적방법대아국 GDP、CPI 대사회융자규모적영향진행실증분석。결과표명，국내생산총치대사회융자규모유일정적정향작용，이거민소비개격지수대사회융자규모유현저적부향작용，삼자지간존재장기균형관계。
In 2011,Chinese financial macro -control system introduces social financing scale,which is then used as the intermediate target of Chinese monetary policies as well as a new monitoring analysis index.Based on previous theoretical studies,we constructe a VAR model with data concerning social financing scale (SFS),GDP and CPI,ranging from the first quarter in 2002 to the third quar-ter in 2014.By co -integration test analysis,Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decompose analysis,we examine the impact of GDP and CPI on social financing scale for empirical research.The results suggest that SFS is positively related with GDP,while negatively related with CPI.In addition,a long -term equilibrium relationship among these three factors does exist, which indicates that it is reasonable to set SFS as the intermediate target of monetary policies.