CAJ | 학술논문

通过对湖州2001-2012年共12a水稻稻纵卷叶螟发生资料与气象资料进行对比分析，选择影响湖州稻纵卷叶螟发生的气象因子气温、降水、风速、湿度、日照等，考虑前期气象条件和虫源数，通过统计分析方法，建立了水稻纵卷叶螟的发生气象条件等级预报模型。用本地气象台发布的未来10d天气预报结论，结合前期天气实况和当前虫源数，对未来10d稻纵卷叶螟的发生气象条件等级进行预报。预报模型紧密联系预报产品特点和预报服务实际，实用性较强。
통과대호주2001-2012년공12a수도도종권협명발생자료여기상자료진행대비분석，선택영향호주도종권협명발생적기상인자기온、강수、풍속、습도、일조등，고필전기기상조건화충원수，통과통계분석방법，건립료수도종권협명적발생기상조건등급예보모형。용본지기상태발포적미래10d천기예보결론，결합전기천기실황화당전충원수，대미래10d도종권협명적발생기상조건등급진행예보。예보모형긴밀련계예보산품특점화예보복무실제，실용성교강。
We compare the occurrence rates of CnaphalocrocismedinalisGuenee and their related meteorologic data in Huzhou district from 2001 to 2012. We identify an internal relation between Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee (CMG)occurrence and meteorologic condition,by analyzing several crucial meteorologic factors,including temper?ature,rainfall,airspeed,humidity,sunshine,et al. We construct a powerful meteorologic forecast model to fore?cast CMG occurrence grades,which is easy and precise in forecasting CMG occurrence grades in the next 10 days by adding the parameters of weather report conclusion,current weather condition and CMG number into this model. This forecast model is powerful and practicable because it is close to characteristics of forecast products and applica?tion.