CAJ | 학술논문

2009年开始的一系列家电补贴政策退市后，家电行业股票价格大涨大跌，投资者迫切需要相关指标来指导其进行股票投资决策。采用文献研究和回归统计方法，选取深圳股市2004年1月到2013年12月共10年的月度数据作为样本，对深圳市场股票收益率与市盈率的关系进行实证分析，最终筛选出市盈率、市场超额收益率和账面市值比因子为回归模型的显著变量。从上市公司规模、成长性、股利等方面对原因予以分析，并从投资者和相关政府部门的角度提出了政策建议。
2009년개시적일계렬가전보첩정책퇴시후，가전행업고표개격대창대질，투자자박절수요상관지표래지도기진행고표투자결책。채용문헌연구화회귀통계방법，선취심수고시2004년1월도2013년12월공10년적월도수거작위양본，대심수시장고표수익솔여시영솔적관계진행실증분석，최종사선출시영솔、시장초액수익솔화장면시치비인자위회귀모형적현저변량。종상시공사규모、성장성、고리등방면대원인여이분석，병종투자자화상관정부부문적각도제출료정책건의。
After the abolishment of a series of subsidy policies to appliances since 2009 , the stock prices of appliances industry goes up and down drastically. Investors need urgently the related indicators to guide their stock investment decisions. Through literature study and regression analysis, the monthly data of Shenzhen Stock Exchange from January 2004 to December 2013 are selected as sample, and empirical analysis is produced on the relationship between stock returns ratio and market earnings ratio. Finally the factors of earnings ratio, market excess returns ratio and book-market ratio are selected as significant variables of the regression model. The reasons are analyzed from the scale, growth trend, dividends and other aspects of listed companies, and policy suggestions are brought forward from aspects of investors and relevant government departments.