CAJ | 학술논문

我国煤炭资源大多分布在欠发达地区，这些地区经济增长与矿产资源开发关系密切。近年来，由于煤炭市场需求乏力、产能过剩以及国外煤炭冲击等原因，煤炭价格波动较大，煤炭富集地区经济也受到一定冲击。文章以山西省为例，基于2005年1月至2014年3月数据，运用计量经济模型分析了煤炭价格波动对山西GDP的影响效力和影响时滞。结果表明：煤炭价格波动对山西GDP具有明显的短期正向和长期正向冲击效力，平均时滞4．5个月。基于以上研究，文章从完善煤炭价格监测预警机制、深化煤矿企业兼并重组，以及加快产业转型步伐等方面提出政策建议，以期为资源富集区可持续发展提供理论依据。
아국매탄자원대다분포재흠발체지구，저사지구경제증장여광산자원개발관계밀절。근년래，유우매탄시장수구핍력、산능과잉이급국외매탄충격등원인，매탄개격파동교대，매탄부집지구경제야수도일정충격。문장이산서성위례，기우2005년1월지2014년3월수거，운용계량경제모형분석료매탄개격파동대산서GDP적영향효력화영향시체。결과표명：매탄개격파동대산서GDP구유명현적단기정향화장기정향충격효력，평균시체4．5개월。기우이상연구，문장종완선매탄개격감측예경궤제、심화매광기업겸병중조，이급가쾌산업전형보벌등방면제출정책건의，이기위자원부집구가지속발전제공이론의거。
Most of coal resources located in less developed areas ,where the economic closely related with the development of the mineral resources .In recent years ,due to the weak coal market demand ,excess capacity ,the impact of foreign coal and other reasons ,the price of coal fluctuates greatly ,and the economy of coal‐rich areas has also been affected .This paper takes Shanxi Province as an example ,based in the data from January 2005 to March 2014 ,uses econometric models to analyze the affection of the coal price fluctuations to the validity and impact of delay of Shanxi’s GDP .The results show that the long‐term and short‐term impact of coal price fluctuation to Shanxi’s GDP is positive ,and average time lag is 4 .5 months . Based on these studies above ,in expectations to help the resource‐rich regions to achieve sustainable development ,the paper make the following recommendations :Improve monitoring and early warning mechanisms coal prices ,Deepening of coal mining enterprises mergers and acquisitions and accelerating the pace of industrial restructuring .