CAJ | 학술논문

将兰村泉域S1长观孔2001—2010年的年平均水位埋深作为特征因素序列，降水量和人工开采量作为相关因素序列，采用灰色系统理论将GM（1，N）模型应用于兰村泉域岩溶地下水位埋深预测，并应用马尔可夫模型对输出结果进行残差修正。结果表明：经过修正后的GM（1，3）模型的拟合精度达到97．41％，比没有经过残差修正的GM（1，3）模型高出9．62％，修正后的预测值更加贴近原始值，准确性提高。采用马尔可夫残差修正模型对2011—2013年兰村泉域水位埋深值进行预测，结果表明：2011年、2012年、2013年的地下水位预测值分别为33．24、32．01、31．12 m，地下水位缓慢回升。
장란촌천역S1장관공2001—2010년적년평균수위매심작위특정인소서렬，강수량화인공개채량작위상관인소서렬，채용회색계통이론장GM（1，N）모형응용우란촌천역암용지하수위매심예측，병응용마이가부모형대수출결과진행잔차수정。결과표명：경과수정후적GM（1，3）모형적의합정도체도97．41％，비몰유경과잔차수정적GM（1，3）모형고출9．62％，수정후적예측치경가첩근원시치，준학성제고。채용마이가부잔차수정모형대2011—2013년란촌천역수위매심치진행예측，결과표명：2011년、2012년、2013년적지하수위예측치분별위33．24、32．01、31．12 m，지하수위완만회승。
Using the value of annual average underground water depth of S1 hole which in Lancun karst spring area,the values of rainfall and groundwater withdrawal as characteristic factor sequence and labor sequence respectively and combining with the grey system theory GM (1, N)model that forecasting underground water depth in Lancun karst spring area to simulate and modify the output residual error based on the Markov model. The results show that the fitting accuracy of the modified GM (1,3)model is 97. 41% that is 9. 62% higher than that of be-fore. And the predictive values which had been corrected were closer to the original date. The results of applying markov residual error cor-rection model for predicting the underground water depth (2011-2013)in Lancun karst spring area show that the predictive value of ground-water depth in the year of 2011,2012 and 2013 are 33. 24,32. 01 and 31. 12 m respectively,indicating that the groundwater table is rising slowly.