CAJ | 학술논문

在能源消费对经济增长显著影响的背景下，本文引入能源投资回报值（EROI）来探讨石油与经济增长的关系，通过研究表明，石油的EROI值与油价呈反向关指数系，而当 EROI值下降至10∶1以下，两者为非线性关系，且EROI值与石油公司的利润率之间存在可比关系。全球的石油EROI值已降至16∶1左右的低水平，对于石油供应短缺的我国而言，EROI值更低至安全警戒线10∶1的水平，随着全球石油峰值的临近，中国的经济增长面临着低石油EROI值，石油企业的高成本，国际油价上涨对中国经济增长的冲击作用，对本土石油企业利润的负面影响也会显著扩大。
재능원소비대경제증장현저영향적배경하，본문인입능원투자회보치（EROI）래탐토석유여경제증장적관계，통과연구표명，석유적EROI치여유개정반향관지수계，이당 EROI치하강지10∶1이하，량자위비선성관계，차EROI치여석유공사적리윤솔지간존재가비관계。전구적석유EROI치이강지16∶1좌우적저수평，대우석유공응단결적아국이언，EROI치경저지안전경계선10∶1적수평，수착전구석유봉치적림근，중국적경제증장면림착저석유EROI치，석유기업적고성본，국제유개상창대중국경제증장적충격작용，대본토석유기업리윤적부면영향야회현저확대。
Under the circumstance of which energy consumption have significant influence on economic growth ,the paper provide EROI to confirm the relationship between oil and economic growth .It proves that the relationship between EROI of oil and oil price is negative exponential ,and when the EROI decrease to below 10∶1 ,the relationship turns to nonlinear .EROI of oil have comparable relationship to the profit of oil companies .Global EROI has fallen to a low level of about 16∶1 ,and the level of EROI of China is lower to the security line 10∶1 ,along with the global peak oil is approaching ,Chinese economic growth facing low oil EROI ,high cost of oil enterprises and oil price impact on Chinese economic grow th ,the negative impact on the local oil company profits will significantly expand .