CAJ | 학술논문

2014年中国生产食糖1248.26万t,销售食糖1082.98万t。2014年中国食糖总产量减少,但主产区日益集中；销糖量和销糖率小幅下降；配额外食糖纳入自动进口许可管理,进口量为348.58万t,同比明显减少；对厄尔尼诺气候的预期影响贯穿全年,糖价波动明显。展望后市,短期内,过剩库存仍使国内外糖价承压；随着库存压力缓解,2015/16榨季国际糖市供给或由剩转缺,2014/15榨季国内也将进入减产周期,长期价格存在上涨动力。后期需继续关注食糖主产国的天气变化﹑食糖用蔗比例﹑进出口补贴政策变化﹑汇率变化以及宏观经济动态等焦点因素。
2014년중국생산식당1248.26만t,소수식당1082.98만t。2014년중국식당총산량감소,단주산구일익집중；소당량화소당솔소폭하강；배액외식당납입자동진구허가관리,진구량위348.58만t,동비명현감소；대액이니낙기후적예기영향관천전년,당개파동명현。전망후시,단기내,과잉고존잉사국내외당개승압；수착고존압력완해,2015/16자계국제당시공급혹유잉전결,2014/15자계국내야장진입감산주기,장기개격존재상창동력。후기수계속관주식당주산국적천기변화﹑식당용자비례﹑진출구보첩정책변화﹑회솔변화이급굉관경제동태등초점인소。
In 2014, China's total production of sugar suffered a decrease, reaching 12.482 6 million tons, and the sales volume was 10.829 8 million tons with a slight decline in both sales volume and rate. However, the sugar crop began to plant in intensive districts. Owing to the automatic import licensing administration of non-quota sugar, the imports of sugar dropped significantly to 3 485 800 tons. The impact of El Nino climate on sugar lasted the whole year with sugar price fluctuating significantly. Looking ahead, both domestic and foreign sugar prices will incline to fall for the excess inventory in the short term, while in the long term, domestic sugar price is likely to increase, for the surplus supply of international sugar may reverse in 2015/16 crushing season with the release of sugar storage press, and domestic production will enter a reduction cycle in 2014/15 crushing season. Afterwards, more attentions should be paid to the weather changes, the cane sugar proportion, the import and export subsidy policies, exchange rate changes and other macroeconomic factors of main sugar producing countries.