中国煤炭
中國煤炭
중국매탄
CHINA COAL
2015年
4期
16-20,55
,共6页
大气污染约束%省域煤炭消费%总量预测
大氣汙染約束%省域煤炭消費%總量預測
대기오염약속%성역매탄소비%총량예측
air pollution constraints%provincial coal consumption%total consumption predic-tion
对历年来主要大气污染物排放量数据、煤炭消费量数据及经济数据进行数组拟合，建立煤炭消费与大气污染物之间的量化关系，并进行相关度分析。在不同的污染物约束条件下对全国以及省域煤炭总量控制目标进行预测，结果表明：全国煤炭消费总量应控制在40~60亿t左右，其中东部、中部及西部的煤炭消费量占比分别为40％、29％及31％左右，中东部比例较以前均有下降，西部占比则明显上升，未来煤炭资源还需进一步优化配置，实现省域内的合理消费。
對歷年來主要大氣汙染物排放量數據、煤炭消費量數據及經濟數據進行數組擬閤，建立煤炭消費與大氣汙染物之間的量化關繫，併進行相關度分析。在不同的汙染物約束條件下對全國以及省域煤炭總量控製目標進行預測，結果錶明：全國煤炭消費總量應控製在40~60億t左右，其中東部、中部及西部的煤炭消費量佔比分彆為40％、29％及31％左右，中東部比例較以前均有下降，西部佔比則明顯上升，未來煤炭資源還需進一步優化配置，實現省域內的閤理消費。
대력년래주요대기오염물배방량수거、매탄소비량수거급경제수거진행수조의합，건립매탄소비여대기오염물지간적양화관계，병진행상관도분석。재불동적오염물약속조건하대전국이급성역매탄총량공제목표진행예측，결과표명：전국매탄소비총량응공제재40~60억t좌우，기중동부、중부급서부적매탄소비량점비분별위40％、29％급31％좌우，중동부비례교이전균유하강，서부점비칙명현상승，미래매탄자원환수진일보우화배치，실현성역내적합리소비。
With conduct array fitting on the historical data of maj or air pollutants emissions, coal consumptions and economic data,to establish the quantitative relationship between coal con-sumption and air pollutants,and make the correlation analysis. Predict the total control targets of country's coal consumption and each province's goal,which is based on different scenarios of pollutants constraints,the result is:the country's total coal consumption should be controlled at about 4 to 6 billion tons,among which the eastern accounts for 40%,while the central area ac-counting 29%,and 31% in western,compared to the past,the eastern and median ratio were both decreased,the west had a marked increase,in the future,there is a need to optimize the al-location of coal resources,to achieve a reasonable consumption within the province.
