CAJ | 학술논문

从缓解煤炭消费与大气污染矛盾出发，剖析大气污染防治面临的严峻态势，分析“十三五”期间大气污染防治的思路、目标和具体指标，预测全国社会经济与能源消费的发展趋势，利用情景分析方法评估了不同污染控制水平情景下的全国煤炭消费总量控制限值。研究结果表明，为了实现大气环境质量改善的目标，到2020年，全国主要大气污染物SO2、NOx和烟尘的排放量控制目标为1800万t、1575万t和900万t；全国煤炭消费量仍将持续增长，但通过进一步提高煤炭的清洁利用水平和污染控制水平，控制在42亿 t 以内是可行的。
종완해매탄소비여대기오염모순출발，부석대기오염방치면림적엄준태세，분석“십삼오”기간대기오염방치적사로、목표화구체지표，예측전국사회경제여능원소비적발전추세，이용정경분석방법평고료불동오염공제수평정경하적전국매탄소비총량공제한치。연구결과표명，위료실현대기배경질량개선적목표，도2020년，전국주요대기오염물SO2、NOx화연진적배방량공제목표위1800만t、1575만t화900만t；전국매탄소비량잉장지속증장，단통과진일보제고매탄적청길이용수평화오염공제수평，공제재42억 t 이내시가행적。
In order to relieve the contradictions of coal consumption and air pollution in Chi-na,the severe situation of air pollution was analyzed. The idea,obj ective and index of air pollu-tion control during the 13th Five-Year Plan was predicted. The trend of national economy and en-ergy consumption was forecasted,national coal consumption limit was assessed in different pollu-tion control scenarios by scenario analysis method. The results showed that the emissions control target of SO2 ,NOx and PM in 2020 would be 18 Mt,15.75 Mt and 9 Mt,the national coal con-sumption would continue to grow and the control objective of 4.2 billion tons in 2020 should be feasible.