CAJ | 학술논문

从纯数学的角度，对多个关联确定性时间序列分别进行多次累加产生新序列，研究序列之间的关系，建立多元线性（或非线性）回归方程。给定显著性水平α，对每个回归方程进行显著性检验。在置信度1-α下建立微分方程组模型，从而揭示这些时间序列之间的关系，实现对原序列的预测和控制。最后用1995-2014年海南省GDP和接待旅游人数建立微分方程组模型并进行预测。
종순수학적각도，대다개관련학정성시간서렬분별진행다차루가산생신서렬，연구서렬지간적관계，건립다원선성（혹비선성）회귀방정。급정현저성수평α，대매개회귀방정진행현저성검험。재치신도1-α하건립미분방정조모형，종이게시저사시간서렬지간적관계，실현대원서렬적예측화공제。최후용1995-2014년해남성GDP화접대여유인수건립미분방정조모형병진행예측。
From the perspective of pure mathematics, Deterministic multivariate time series were multiply accumulated to produce some new sequences, studying relationship among them and establishing the multiple linear or nonlinear regression model. If a significance levelαwas given, the significance test for every regression equation was carried out. At confidence level 1-α, the differential equations models were established to reveal the relationship among all the time series, and fore?cast or control them. Finally, using the data for the value of GDP and the number of tourist reception in Hainan province from 1995 to 2014, differential equations model is established to forecast.