CAJ | 학술논문

应用1974年—2009年间人为火的空间地理坐标，结合研究地的基础地理信息及矢量化林相图，应用A rc‐GIS10．0中的空间分析工具和SPSS19．0的逻辑斯蒂回归模型深入分析地形环境因素对人为火发生的影响。研究结果表明“到铁路距离”对人为火的影响显著，其次，在1∶1和1∶3选取随机点条件下人为火发生分别与“优势树种”和“林型”显著相关。本文研究显示在运用“随机点”方法进行相关性分析时，随机点选取数量对模型拟合结果有一定影响。
응용1974년—2009년간인위화적공간지리좌표，결합연구지적기출지리신식급시양화림상도，응용A rc‐GIS10．0중적공간분석공구화SPSS19．0적라집사체회귀모형심입분석지형배경인소대인위화발생적영향。연구결과표명“도철로거리”대인위화적영향현저，기차，재1∶1화1∶3선취수궤점조건하인위화발생분별여“우세수충”화“림형”현저상관。본문연구현시재운용“수궤점”방법진행상관성분석시，수궤점선취수량대모형의합결과유일정영향。
In this paper ,we used the spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS10 .0 and Logistic regression model imbedded in SPSS 19 .0 to identify the impact of human‐activity and geographical factors on forest fires ,based on the coordinates of human‐caused fires during 1974‐2009 and the basic geographical map .The results showed that“the distance to railway”has a significant impact on the human‐caused fires .Moreover ,“the dominant tree” and“the forest type” are significantly correlated with human‐caused fires under 1∶1 and 1∶ 3 conditions ,respectively .It was also found that the rate of random sample selection affects the parameter estimation of the model .