工程管理学报
工程管理學報
공정관이학보
CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT MODERNIZATION
2015年
2期
142-147
,共6页
开发企业%扩张策略%风险分散%投资组合
開髮企業%擴張策略%風險分散%投資組閤
개발기업%확장책략%풍험분산%투자조합
development enterprises%expansion strategy%risk diversification%investment portfolio
针对中国房地产开发企业进一步发展的需要，分析对比了境内跨城市扩张、“出海”（进入部分国际城市从事开发业务）和“转商”（引入商业物业持有型投资）3种扩张策略在分散投资风险方面的效果。综合相关性系数和均值—方差模型方法的研究结果显示，由于境内各城市在住房市场波动上的高相关性，单纯的跨城市扩张在风险分散方面的效果有限。引入商业物业持有型投资则可以有效地分散投资风险，此外选择性进入部分国际城市（尤其是香港、新加坡等亚洲城市）也具有一定效果。
針對中國房地產開髮企業進一步髮展的需要，分析對比瞭境內跨城市擴張、“齣海”（進入部分國際城市從事開髮業務）和“轉商”（引入商業物業持有型投資）3種擴張策略在分散投資風險方麵的效果。綜閤相關性繫數和均值—方差模型方法的研究結果顯示，由于境內各城市在住房市場波動上的高相關性，單純的跨城市擴張在風險分散方麵的效果有限。引入商業物業持有型投資則可以有效地分散投資風險，此外選擇性進入部分國際城市（尤其是香港、新加坡等亞洲城市）也具有一定效果。
침대중국방지산개발기업진일보발전적수요，분석대비료경내과성시확장、“출해”（진입부분국제성시종사개발업무）화“전상”（인입상업물업지유형투자）3충확장책략재분산투자풍험방면적효과。종합상관성계수화균치—방차모형방법적연구결과현시，유우경내각성시재주방시장파동상적고상관성，단순적과성시확장재풍험분산방면적효과유한。인입상업물업지유형투자칙가이유효지분산투자풍험，차외선택성진입부분국제성시（우기시향항、신가파등아주성시）야구유일정효과。
In this paper,the analysis and comparison of three strategies,including domestic intercity expansion,entering the overseas residential development markets and the introduction of commercial property holding business,are conducted in terms of risk diversification regarding the Chinese real estate development enterprises proposing further development. The results of coefficient of correlation and mean-variance model both suggest that the improvement of portfolio is limited for the purely intercity sprawl due to the high correlation of housing market fluctuation between each city. The introduction of commercial property holding business can significantly improve the risk diversification. Moreover the participation of some specific international cities’ housing market especially Hong Kong,Singapore and other Asian cities’ market can also achieve good improvement.
