中国煤炭
中國煤炭
중국매탄
CHINA COAL
2015年
3期
25-29
,共5页
期望值%贡献率%煤矿建设%大海则煤矿%风险评价
期望值%貢獻率%煤礦建設%大海則煤礦%風險評價
기망치%공헌솔%매광건설%대해칙매광%풍험평개
expected value%construction rate%coal mine construction%Dahaize Coal Mine%risk assessment
基于当前大型煤矿建设项目在建设期间发生的事故依旧严峻，导致煤矿建设项目建设能力下降、风险隐患增加的现状。本文在根据以往研究理论的基础上，提出“改进”期望值模型，以提出更加快捷、准确的评价方法。通过大型煤矿建设项目的共同特征，以大海则煤矿建设项目为例，对大海则煤矿从政治环境、经济环境、安全等方面进行评价。利用因子贡献率分析，得到风险发生概率，通过期望值理论得到“改进”的期望值模型进行煤矿项目建设评价。通过“改进”的期望值模型对大型煤矿建设项目风险评价并讨论，得出“改进”期望值模型在大型煤矿建设评价中是一种可行的评价模型的结论。
基于噹前大型煤礦建設項目在建設期間髮生的事故依舊嚴峻，導緻煤礦建設項目建設能力下降、風險隱患增加的現狀。本文在根據以往研究理論的基礎上，提齣“改進”期望值模型，以提齣更加快捷、準確的評價方法。通過大型煤礦建設項目的共同特徵，以大海則煤礦建設項目為例，對大海則煤礦從政治環境、經濟環境、安全等方麵進行評價。利用因子貢獻率分析，得到風險髮生概率，通過期望值理論得到“改進”的期望值模型進行煤礦項目建設評價。通過“改進”的期望值模型對大型煤礦建設項目風險評價併討論，得齣“改進”期望值模型在大型煤礦建設評價中是一種可行的評價模型的結論。
기우당전대형매광건설항목재건설기간발생적사고의구엄준，도치매광건설항목건설능력하강、풍험은환증가적현상。본문재근거이왕연구이론적기출상，제출“개진”기망치모형，이제출경가쾌첩、준학적평개방법。통과대형매광건설항목적공동특정，이대해칙매광건설항목위례，대대해칙매광종정치배경、경제배경、안전등방면진행평개。이용인자공헌솔분석，득도풍험발생개솔，통과기망치이론득도“개진”적기망치모형진행매광항목건설평개。통과“개진”적기망치모형대대형매광건설항목풍험평개병토론，득출“개진”기망치모형재대형매광건설평개중시일충가행적평개모형적결론。
The current large coal mine construction projects still have happened serious acci-dents during construction which leadedcoal mine construction projects reduced ability of construc-tion and increased hidden risks.According to previous research theories,the authors mentioned"improvement" expected value model to provide faster and more accurate evaluation methods than before.Taking Dahaize Coal Mine as an example and basing upon common features of large coal mine construction projects,the authors assessed political environment,economic environment and safety factors,at meanwhile,analysis of factor contribution rate were used to get the risk probability,and the expected value theory were used to get the "improvement" expected valued model of large coal mine projects construction assessment.Furthermore,according to the risk as-sessment and discussion of the large coal mine projects based upon the "improvement" expected value model,the results showed that the model was a feasible assessment model on the large coal mine construction assessment.
