CAJ | 학술논문

西藏高原自然环境独特性对经济社会发展有特殊要求，符合主体功能定位及方向是支撑国家生态安全战略的基础.以藏北高原重点生态功能区为例，采用情景分析法，基于“草畜平衡”与主体功能关系，由生态系统服务功能向生产生活层面，逐步分析减载增服、结构平衡、增加收入、人口迁移等4种情景.结果表明：①20年来人口规模、城镇化率、工业化率和非农产值比例等指标不断提高，国土开发强度由0.142‰缓慢升至0.269‰，生态脆弱性等生态环境指标处于高位，主体功能属性判别值A在限制开发阈值内，产业与就业结构偏离度较高，其中一产由-0.31降至-0.69，牧区劳动力隐形失业严重.人口迁移处于净流入状态，重点生态功能核心区迁移活跃程度加大、边界扩大.②在草场负荷、人口规模由1648万与50.32万分别调至理论阈值1382万与38.12万、城镇化率由29.77%增至54.48%、一产产业与就业结构偏离度由-0.69升至均衡（0）条件下，预计2014—2020年间：减畜生态补偿资金需要1.83亿，一产比值由16.24%下降至7.76%，人口净迁出率由5.32%逐年增至34.93%，人均纯收入翻番过程中牧业比例由58.44%下降至19.56%，国土开发强度由0.269‰降至0.169‰.
서장고원자연배경독특성대경제사회발전유특수요구，부합주체공능정위급방향시지탱국가생태안전전략적기출.이장북고원중점생태공능구위례，채용정경분석법，기우“초축평형”여주체공능관계，유생태계통복무공능향생산생활층면，축보분석감재증복、결구평형、증가수입、인구천이등4충정경.결과표명：①20년래인구규모、성진화솔、공업화솔화비농산치비례등지표불단제고，국토개발강도유0.142‰완만승지0.269‰，생태취약성등생태배경지표처우고위，주체공능속성판별치A재한제개발역치내，산업여취업결구편리도교고，기중일산유-0.31강지-0.69，목구노동력은형실업엄중.인구천이처우정류입상태，중점생태공능핵심구천이활약정도가대、변계확대.②재초장부하、인구규모유1648만여50.32만분별조지이론역치1382만여38.12만、성진화솔유29.77%증지54.48%、일산산업여취업결구편리도유-0.69승지균형（0）조건하，예계2014—2020년간：감축생태보상자금수요1.83억，일산비치유16.24%하강지7.76%，인구정천출솔유5.32%축년증지34.93%，인균순수입번번과정중목업비례유58.44%하강지19.56%，국토개발강도유0.269‰강지0.169‰.
The unique natural environment of Tibetan Plateau has special requirements for economic and social development. A satisfying development with the main function is the foundation of the national ecological security strategy. Taking the Northern Tibetan Plateau main ecological function zones as an example ,based on the relationship between the forage and animal balance and main function,we analyzed the following scenes,including load shedding&service increase,migration,structural balance and revenue increase,from ecosystem services function to the manufacturing and living level with the help of scenario analysis. The results showed as follows. ①In the recent 20 years,the population size,urbanization level,industrialization level,the proportion of non-agricultural output and other indicators have been increasing continually,and the land development intensity has slowly increased from 0.142‰to 0.269‰,eco-environment index such as ecological vulnerability is very high,the main functional attributes discriminant ratio A is within the threshold of the development limit. The structure deviates of industry and employment are high,and the primary industry is reduced from-0.31 to-0.69,which means a huge invisible unemployment of the pastoral labor. The state of population migration is net immigration, and the activity of core areas of ecological function migration increased,borders expanded. ②For the near future from 2014 to 2020,it is expected that the pasture load and the population size of 16 480 000 and 503 200, respectively,would raise to 13.82 million and 381 200,which is the theoretical threshold. The urbanization rate would increase from 29.77 percent to 54.48 percent,under this scenario. The demand of ecological compensation fund would be 183 000 000. The primary industry ratio would decrease from 16.24% to 7.76% ,and the net emigration rate would increase from 5.32% to 34.93% annually. The proportion of animal husbandry per capita net income during the doubling process would increase from 58.44% to 19.56%,and the land development intensity would decrease from 0.269 ‰ to 0.169 ‰ .