CAJ | 학술논문

以上市公司中2013年31家被ST的公司和与之对应的31家非ST公司为研究的对象，利用公司的财务报表，采用Logistic回归方程建立财务预警模型，同时，为进一步增强预警模型的有效性，将前瞻性的EVA指标和真实反映企业财务状况的现金流量指标中同时引到财务危机预警模型的构建中。通过对模型的拟合优度及回代检测可以看出，加入EVA指标和现金流量指标的财务危机预警模型对危机的前瞻性和灵敏度要大于基于传统指标所建立的财务危机模型，因此引入EVA指标和现金流量指标对财务危机的预警具有很好的理论依据。
이상시공사중2013년31가피ST적공사화여지대응적31가비ST공사위연구적대상，이용공사적재무보표，채용Logistic회귀방정건립재무예경모형，동시，위진일보증강예경모형적유효성，장전첨성적EVA지표화진실반영기업재무상황적현금류량지표중동시인도재무위궤예경모형적구건중。통과대모형적의합우도급회대검측가이간출，가입EVA지표화현금류량지표적재무위궤예경모형대위궤적전첨성화령민도요대우기우전통지표소건립적재무위궤모형，인차인입EVA지표화현금류량지표대재무위궤적예경구유흔호적이론의거。
Forward?looking and sensitivity to EVA and the cash flow index is more and more recognized. Therefore, constructing a decisive role for the long?term development of the company set of joining EVA and cash flows of the financial crisis early warning model is of great significance. The listing corporation financial normal firms and financial crisis companies as a sample,selected 31 ST companies and 31 non ST companies,a total of 62 companies selected modeling samples. Through the test,it is concluded that EVA and cash flow indexes play a tremendous role in model construction,and the crisis sensitivity and predictive ability of EVA and cash flow indicators are better than the traditional index. The establishment of a financial crisis early warning system is of great significance for the development of the company.