CAJ | 학술논문

利用CHARLS 2008－2012年浙江、甘肃两省的调查数据，通过构造Heckman?HLM模型，实证分析社会保障对家庭代际经济支持的概率及规模的影响，并分样本进行差异性研究。结果发现，社会保障与经济支持之间存在“挤出”效应。分样本逐步回归发现，与浙江老年人相比，医疗保险、养老保险和社会保障性收入对甘肃老年人获得子女经济支持的“挤出效应”更明显；社会保障对城市老年人、非独居老年人、高龄老年人的“挤出”效应更明显。政府应将有限的社会保障向高龄、非在婚及健康状况较差的弱势群体倾斜，考虑公平性的同时也要考虑社会保障的效率，争取“雪中送炭”而非“锦上添花”。
이용CHARLS 2008－2012년절강、감숙량성적조사수거，통과구조Heckman?HLM모형，실증분석사회보장대가정대제경제지지적개솔급규모적영향，병분양본진행차이성연구。결과발현，사회보장여경제지지지간존재“제출”효응。분양본축보회귀발현，여절강노년인상비，의료보험、양로보험화사회보장성수입대감숙노년인획득자녀경제지지적“제출효응”경명현；사회보장대성시노년인、비독거노년인、고령노년인적“제출”효응경명현。정부응장유한적사회보장향고령、비재혼급건강상황교차적약세군체경사，고필공평성적동시야요고필사회보장적효솔，쟁취“설중송탄”이비“금상첨화”。
Based on CHARLS 2008-2012 survey data in Gansu and Zhejiang province, this study empirically analyzed the probability and size of social security to family intergenerational economic support using Heckman ? HLM model, and detected the difference between samples?Through stepwise regression, samples points found that compared with the old people in Zhejiang province, the “crowding out” effect of medical insurance, endowment insurance and social security income in the economy support the elderly got from children is more obvious;Social security of urban elderly, elderly lived with family, the“crowd out” effect is more obvious?Therefore this paper suggested that the government should tilt the limited social security to the disadvantaged elderly groups, such as the eldest old, the old not in marriage and the old with poorer health, considering fairness and efficiency, strive for “timely” rather than “icing on the cake”.