中华流行病学杂志
中華流行病學雜誌
중화류행병학잡지
CHINESE JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY
2015年
5期
476-480
,共5页
王超%方立群%曹务春%张英杰%曹凯%胥芹%郭秀花
王超%方立群%曹務春%張英傑%曹凱%胥芹%郭秀花
왕초%방립군%조무춘%장영걸%조개%서근%곽수화
手足口病%Bayes时空分析%气象因素
手足口病%Bayes時空分析%氣象因素
수족구병%Bayes시공분석%기상인소
Hand,foot and mouth disease%Bayes spatial-temporal analysis%Meteorological factor
目的 探讨气象因素对我国手足口病患病的影响.方法 采用层次Bayes模型[Besag,York,and Mollie’(BYM) model]对数据进行拟合,比较空间异质模型(UH)、空间相关模型(CH)和时空交互效应模型对数据的拟合效果,选取最优模型结合生态学分析手足口病的气象影响因素.结果 加入协变量的时空交互CH+UH拟合效果较优(DIC=35 507.2),降水量(RR=1.051 7,95％CI:1.050 4～1.052 5)、平均气压(RR=1.076 4,95％CI:1.074 8～1.077 9)、平均温度(RR=1.089 6,95％CI:1.078 1 ～ 1.106 9)、平均相对湿度(RR=1.089 0,95％CI:1.082 1 ～ 1.091 2)和日照时数(RR=1.085 l,95％CI:1.079 8～1.087 5)是手足口病的危险因素.结论 手足口病的发生具有时空聚集的特点,气象因素与手足口病的发生关系密切.
目的 探討氣象因素對我國手足口病患病的影響.方法 採用層次Bayes模型[Besag,York,and Mollie’(BYM) model]對數據進行擬閤,比較空間異質模型(UH)、空間相關模型(CH)和時空交互效應模型對數據的擬閤效果,選取最優模型結閤生態學分析手足口病的氣象影響因素.結果 加入協變量的時空交互CH+UH擬閤效果較優(DIC=35 507.2),降水量(RR=1.051 7,95％CI:1.050 4～1.052 5)、平均氣壓(RR=1.076 4,95％CI:1.074 8～1.077 9)、平均溫度(RR=1.089 6,95％CI:1.078 1 ～ 1.106 9)、平均相對濕度(RR=1.089 0,95％CI:1.082 1 ～ 1.091 2)和日照時數(RR=1.085 l,95％CI:1.079 8～1.087 5)是手足口病的危險因素.結論 手足口病的髮生具有時空聚集的特點,氣象因素與手足口病的髮生關繫密切.
목적 탐토기상인소대아국수족구병환병적영향.방법 채용층차Bayes모형[Besag,York,and Mollie’(BYM) model]대수거진행의합,비교공간이질모형(UH)、공간상관모형(CH)화시공교호효응모형대수거적의합효과,선취최우모형결합생태학분석수족구병적기상영향인소.결과 가입협변량적시공교호CH+UH의합효과교우(DIC=35 507.2),강수량(RR=1.051 7,95％CI:1.050 4～1.052 5)、평균기압(RR=1.076 4,95％CI:1.074 8～1.077 9)、평균온도(RR=1.089 6,95％CI:1.078 1 ～ 1.106 9)、평균상대습도(RR=1.089 0,95％CI:1.082 1 ～ 1.091 2)화일조시수(RR=1.085 l,95％CI:1.079 8～1.087 5)시수족구병적위험인소.결론 수족구병적발생구유시공취집적특점,기상인소여수족구병적발생관계밀절.
Objective To understand the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease (HFMD) and the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in China.Methods Bayesian hierarchical model[Besag,York,and Mollie' (BYM) model] was used to fit the data.The fitting effects of uncorrelated heterogeneity (UH) model,correlated heterogeneity (CH) model and spatial and temporal interaction model were compared and the best model was selected to analyze the meteorological factors influencing the incidence of HFMD.Results The UH +CH model with spatial and temporal interaction had best fitting effect (DIC=35 507.2).Rainfall(RR=1.051 7,95％ CI:1.050 4-1.052 5),average temperature (RR=1.089 6,95％ CI:1.078 1-1.106 9),average relative humidity (RR=l.089 0,95％CI:1.082 1-1.091 2),average air pressure (RR=l.076 4,95％ CI:1.074 8-1.077 9) and hours of sunshine (RR=1.0851,95％ CI:1.0798-1.0875) were the meteorological factors influencing the incidence of HFMD.Conclusion The incidence of HFMD had spatial and temporal clustering characteristics.The meteorological factors were closely related with the incidence of HFMD.
