CAJ | 학술논문

当代中国正在逐步走出腐败高发期，开始进入腐败高发的降减期，准确地说，正处于腐败高发降减期与高压反腐阵痛期相互交织的阶段。可以预见，随着全面建成小康社会、全面深化改革、全面推进依法治国、全面从严治党、全面推进社会主义现代化进一步取得成效，到党的十九大召开前后，有望“走出腐败高发期”，到2020年左右可望度过“高压反腐阵痛期”，进入党纪国法制度强制与公民本能反腐良性互动期，到2030年进入反腐红利集中释放期，伴随着这一进程，到建国一百年前后进入“反腐倡廉自觉期”。当然，这样的前景研判，在具体的时间点上不必以哪一年搞一刀切，这里所说的“期”相互之间有交叉，尤其是反腐红利的释放，实际上是一个缓释与集中释放相统一的过程。反对腐败是党心民心所向，有党心民心作力量源泉，随着依法从严反腐的深入推进，反腐败斗争必将取得胜利。
당대중국정재축보주출부패고발기，개시진입부패고발적강감기，준학지설，정처우부패고발강감기여고압반부진통기상호교직적계단。가이예견，수착전면건성소강사회、전면심화개혁、전면추진의법치국、전면종엄치당、전면추진사회주의현대화진일보취득성효，도당적십구대소개전후，유망“주출부패고발기”，도2020년좌우가망도과“고압반부진통기”，진입당기국법제도강제여공민본능반부량성호동기，도2030년진입반부홍리집중석방기，반수착저일진정，도건국일백년전후진입“반부창렴자각기”。당연，저양적전경연판，재구체적시간점상불필이나일년고일도절，저리소설적“기”상호지간유교차，우기시반부홍리적석방，실제상시일개완석여집중석방상통일적과정。반대부패시당심민심소향，유당심민심작역량원천，수착의법종엄반부적심입추진，반부패두쟁필장취득성리。
Contemporary China has begun to enter the period of decreasing high incidence of corruption, and is gradually stepping out of the high incidence of corruption. Accurate to say, the period of decreasing high incidence of corruption and the throes period of intensified anti-corruption are intertwined. We can expect that China will“stride out of the high incidence of corruption”around the 19th National Congress of the CPC, with the further achievements in comprehensively building a moderately prosperous society, deepening reform, implementing the rule of law, strengthening Party disciplines, and advancing socialist modernization. Around 2020, China may go through the “throes period of intensified anti-corruption”and enter the period when the Party discipline, the state law, the compulsory system and citizens’ instinctive anti-corruption will interact benignly. Around 2030, China may enter the period when the dividend of anti-corruption will release intensively. Along with the process, China will enter the period of “conscious anti-corruption”when the PRC celebrates the 100th anniversary of its founding. Certainly, the prediction of its prospects mentioned above can’t be made to the degree of specific time. The“periods”analyzed here are overlapped. As a matter of fact, the release of anti-corruption dividend is gradual yet concentrated, which is a dialectical and unified process. Fighting against corruption accords with the aspirations of the Party members and the people, which is the source of strength. With the in-depth development of anti-corruption strictly according to law, the fighting against corruption is bound to win.