CAJ | 학술논문

2013年夏季（6—8月），中国降水呈北多南少的异常分布，东北、华北、四川盆地东部及西北大部降水偏多，而淮河流域至江南大范围地区及青藏高原等地降水偏少。动力—统计预测和动力统计—诊断预测两种方法对夏季北方多雨和长江少雨的总体形势预测基本正确，预测评分（PS）分别为71分和74分，空间距平相关系数（ACC）分别为0.09和0.20。对西太平洋副热带高压、欧亚阻塞高压和东北冷涡区500hPa高度距平场的动力—统计预测结果也较理想，为夏季旱涝分布的诊断预测提供了依据。指出了目前动力—统计预测可能存在的问题，如预测结果对模式预测能力依赖性强，采用多因子选取相似年时，部分因子与降水之间的物理机制不清晰，等等；并指出了可能的解决途径，如通过多模式评估和集合预报来克服预测结果对模式的依赖性，通过深入分析因子对降水的影响机制、因子与降水之间年际关系的年代际变化等来解决因子的筛选问题。
2013년하계（6—8월），중국강수정북다남소적이상분포，동북、화북、사천분지동부급서북대부강수편다，이회하류역지강남대범위지구급청장고원등지강수편소。동력—통계예측화동력통계—진단예측량충방법대하계북방다우화장강소우적총체형세예측기본정학，예측평분（PS）분별위71분화74분，공간거평상관계수（ACC）분별위0.09화0.20。대서태평양부열대고압、구아조새고압화동북랭와구500hPa고도거평장적동력—통계예측결과야교이상，위하계한로분포적진단예측제공료의거。지출료목전동력—통계예측가능존재적문제，여예측결과대모식예측능력의뢰성강，채용다인자선취상사년시，부분인자여강수지간적물리궤제불청석，등등；병지출료가능적해결도경，여통과다모식평고화집합예보래극복예측결과대모식적의뢰성，통과심입분석인자대강수적영향궤제、인자여강수지간년제관계적년대제변화등래해결인자적사선문제。
The precipitation anomaly distribution over China in the summer of 2013 was seen by the phenomenon of lfooding in north and drought in south. More rainfall occurred in northeast China, north China, the eastern Sichuan basin and the most of the northwest China, while less rainfall occurred from the Huaihe river basin to the south of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and it also occurred over Tibetan Plateau. Both the dynamic-statistical prediction (DSP) and dynamic statistical-diagnostic prediction (DSDP) have made the approximately correct forecast for the situation of the lfood in north and drought in the Yangtze River. The predictive score (PS) is 71 and 74 respectively, while the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) is 0.09 and 0.20 respectively. The DSP results of 500hPa height anomalies ifeld in the areas of western Paciifc subtropical high, Eurasian blocking high and northeast China cold vortex are ideal, which provided the basis for diagnostic prediction of the summer drought and lfood distribution. Finally, the existing problems of DSP were discussed and we pointed out the possible solutions.