气象科技进展
氣象科技進展
기상과기진전
Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology
2015年
2期
18-23
,共6页
台风%预报%评估%示范
檯風%預報%評估%示範
태풍%예보%평고%시범
Typhoon%Forecast Demonstration%Forecast Evaluation%World EXPO 2010
WMO登陆台风预报示范项目（2010—2015年）自2010年立项至今，已建成一个集当今世界主流台风主、客观预报产品及其性能评估的业务平台。项目通过开展台风预报评估，分析了当前世界上多类先进预报技术的台风路径、强度和降水预报能力，加深了对台风预报可信度的认识，并在台风预报检验新技术和台风集成预报新技术的研发、应用等方面取得了突破性进展，初步建立了涵盖确定性和集合预报的台风路径、强度和风雨预报性能评估技术体系，有效地推进了先进台风预报技术在台风预报业务中的展示和应用。
WMO登陸檯風預報示範項目（2010—2015年）自2010年立項至今，已建成一箇集噹今世界主流檯風主、客觀預報產品及其性能評估的業務平檯。項目通過開展檯風預報評估，分析瞭噹前世界上多類先進預報技術的檯風路徑、彊度和降水預報能力，加深瞭對檯風預報可信度的認識，併在檯風預報檢驗新技術和檯風集成預報新技術的研髮、應用等方麵取得瞭突破性進展，初步建立瞭涵蓋確定性和集閤預報的檯風路徑、彊度和風雨預報性能評估技術體繫，有效地推進瞭先進檯風預報技術在檯風預報業務中的展示和應用。
WMO등륙태풍예보시범항목（2010—2015년）자2010년립항지금，이건성일개집당금세계주류태풍주、객관예보산품급기성능평고적업무평태。항목통과개전태풍예보평고，분석료당전세계상다류선진예보기술적태풍로경、강도화강수예보능력，가심료대태풍예보가신도적인식，병재태풍예보검험신기술화태풍집성예보신기술적연발、응용등방면취득료돌파성진전，초보건립료함개학정성화집합예보적태풍로경、강도화풍우예보성능평고기술체계，유효지추진료선진태풍예보기술재태풍예보업무중적전시화응용。
The “WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (WMO-TLFDP)” was started in May 2010, with an aim to improve the typhoon landfall forecast service for World Expo 2010 and enhance the ability of forecasters and decision-makers to effectively use products of the most advanced typhoon forecasting techniques in the world. The project continued after the World Expo 2010 and will end in 2015. Up to now, the project has set up a platform integrating the most advanced typhoon forecasting guidance in the world. The forecast guidance for typhoon track, intensity, and precipitation has been evaluated in both real-time and post-season manners, which helps in understanding the reliability of typhoon forecasts. Breakthroughs have been made in terms of new veriifcation techniques for typhoon forecast and new consensus forecast techniques based on available guidance. An evaluation index system has been proposed covering the indices for both the deterministic and probabilistic typhoon forecasts. These efforts have effectively demonstrated and promoted the application of advanced typhoon forecasting techniques in operation.
