CAJ | 학술논문

环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）假说认为环境质量内生于经济增长，忽略了环境规制和技术进步对环境质量的重要影响。提出了“环境政策有效性”假说，并通过对天津市16个区县2006—2013年面板数据构建计量模型，定量研究了经济发展、环境规制、技术进步与大气污染物排放之间的关系。结果表明，天津市各区县工业和全社会SO2、NOx、烟粉尘排放量与收入水平的关系并不显著，而政府环境政策、企业减排技术进步显著地降低了污染物排放，从而证实了这一假说。研究还发现，天津市各污染物基本都处于EKC曲线的上升阶段，整体尚未实现污染物排放的拐点；污染物排放量与工业化进程显著正相关，而当前天津市大多数区县尚处在工业化中后期。未来大气污染治理应着力通过调整工业结构、加快技术进步来降低工业污染排放。
배경고자열자곡선（EKC）가설인위배경질량내생우경제증장，홀략료배경규제화기술진보대배경질량적중요영향。제출료“배경정책유효성”가설，병통과대천진시16개구현2006—2013년면판수거구건계량모형，정량연구료경제발전、배경규제、기술진보여대기오염물배방지간적관계。결과표명，천진시각구현공업화전사회SO2、NOx、연분진배방량여수입수평적관계병불현저，이정부배경정책、기업감배기술진보현저지강저료오염물배방，종이증실료저일가설。연구환발현，천진시각오염물기본도처우EKC곡선적상승계단，정체상미실현오염물배방적괴점；오염물배방량여공업화진정현저정상관，이당전천진시대다수구현상처재공업화중후기。미래대기오염치리응착력통과조정공업결구、가쾌기술진보래강저공업오염배방。
The traditional Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Hypothesis implies that the environment perfor-mance is endogenous with the economic growth, which underestimate the more fundamental role of government en-vironment regulation, technology advance on the transition of pollutant emissions. This paper, however, based on the theory of institution school, raises an 'Effective Environmental Institution' hypothesis, as a complemental hy-pothesis to the EKC theory. And we try to find empirical evidence from Tianjin. Through a panel model on Tian-jin 16 districts (counties) during 2006-2013, this paper studies the relationship between the economic growth, envi-ronment regulation, technology advance, and its atmospheric pollutants emissions (including both industrial and to-tal SO2, NOX, fume & dusts emissions, and PM10 concentrations). Results show that there are not significant linka-ges between the GDP per capita and the four pollutant emissions, however, there are negative and significant cor-relation between three main atmosphere pollutants (SO2, NOX, fume & dusts) and the environment regulations (rep-resented as a policy dummy variable), and induced technology advance (represented as the industrial SO2 scrub ra-tio). These empirical findings corroborate our hypothesis. Results find that the industrial ratio negatively and signifi-cantly correlated to three pollutants. Furthermore, data shows that most of the districts (counties) are in the inter-mediate or end of the industrialization stage, which means they are still on the rising Environmental Kuznets Curve. Besides that, all four pollutants are highly correlated with its first-order lags. In the future, with the expan-sion of economic scale, and further industrialization, the pressures of pollutants abatement will be much higher. Government and industries sectors should accelerate the industrial structural transition and technology advance to improve the air quality.