CAJ | 학술논문

利用 ENVI 软件对2000和2010年红原县遥感影像进行解译，建立红原县草地资源数据库。设定9种干扰变化的驱动因子，利用 VDDT 以2000到2001年草地景观转换概率和干扰因子出现情况，对2020年红原县草地景观的动态变化进行模拟分析。结果表明，VDDT 在模拟红原县草地景观变化动态中具有较高的可行性（斑块面积拟合度为0．9325，斑块数目拟合度为0．8833）。通过对影响草地景观格局变化的主要因子进行分析，表明红原县草地具有明显退化趋势。
이용 ENVI 연건대2000화2010년홍원현요감영상진행해역，건립홍원현초지자원수거고。설정9충간우변화적구동인자，이용 VDDT 이2000도2001년초지경관전환개솔화간우인자출현정황，대2020년홍원현초지경관적동태변화진행모의분석。결과표명，VDDT 재모의홍원현초지경관변화동태중구유교고적가행성（반괴면적의합도위0．9325，반괴수목의합도위0．8833）。통과대영향초지경관격국변화적주요인자진행분석，표명홍원현초지구유명현퇴화추세。
Based on remote sensing images of Hongyuan County collected between 2000 and 2010,a landscape classification map and grassland resource database were produced using ENVI software.In addition,9 disturb-ance types were chosen to simulate the landscape succession to the year 2020 using the United States depart-ment of Agriculture Vegetation Dynamics Development (VDDT)tool based on the transition probability for 2000 -2001.The results showed that:1)In the 20 years,grassland decreased by about 824 km2 ,and forest by 191 km2 ,however,the unutilized area was predicted to increase by about 89 km2 ;2)The VDDT tool provided an acceptable simulation of the landscape succession as indicated by the Hongyuan County land use maps for 2000 and 2010 [R 2 =0.9325(Area),R 2 =0.8833(Number)];3)The simulation showed an obvious degenera-tion trend for grassland in Hongyuan county.Factors affecting the future landscape pattern and rate of grass-land degeneration were also analyzed.