CAJ | 학술논문

草原蝗虫发生与栖境存在紧密而复杂的关系，二者关系的研究是评估蝗灾发生风险的基础。本文分析了不同栖境内蝗虫种群密度与21个植被特征参数的相关关系，利用投影寻踪模型进行了栖境评价及风险评估，并进行模型验证。结果表明，低优参数植物生物量多样性对蝗虫种群密度影响最大，最佳投影向量 a 为0．6725；高优参数禾本科生态优势度对亚洲小车蝗密度影响最大，最佳投影向量 a 为0．6547；样点植被投影特征值 Zi 与蝗虫种群密度线性相关关系极显著（y ＝48．861x－18．937，R＝0．9509**），Zi 越大，栖境内植被越适合蝗虫的发生，蝗灾发生的风险越高，根据 Zi 值可预测不同栖境草原蝗虫的发生。投影寻踪模型评价不同植被条件下蝗虫的发生风险，可以排除与数据结构和特征无关或关系很小变量的干扰，是一种更稳健实用的方法，对于蝗虫的监测预警具有重要意义。
초원황충발생여서경존재긴밀이복잡적관계，이자관계적연구시평고황재발생풍험적기출。본문분석료불동서경내황충충군밀도여21개식피특정삼수적상관관계，이용투영심종모형진행료서경평개급풍험평고，병진행모형험증。결과표명，저우삼수식물생물량다양성대황충충군밀도영향최대，최가투영향량 a 위0．6725；고우삼수화본과생태우세도대아주소차황밀도영향최대，최가투영향량 a 위0．6547；양점식피투영특정치 Zi 여황충충군밀도선성상관관계겁현저（y ＝48．861x－18．937，R＝0．9509**），Zi 월대，서경내식피월괄합황충적발생，황재발생적풍험월고，근거 Zi 치가예측불동서경초원황충적발생。투영심종모형평개불동식피조건하황충적발생풍험，가이배제여수거결구화특정무관혹관계흔소변량적간우，시일충경은건실용적방법，대우황충적감측예경구유중요의의。
There are close and complex relationships between grasshopper occurrence and habitat vegetation.A comprehensive analysis of these relationships will provide a stable foundation for risk assessments of grasshop-per infection.Grasshopper population density and 21 vegetation parameters were analyzed in the survey on which this paper is based.A projection pursuit model was developed and verified in order to evaluate the risks of grasshopper infection.Results showed that a low index for plant biomass diversity had the greatest influence on grasshopper density,with the best projection direction a at 0.6725.Poaceae dominance with a high index had the greatest influence on Oedaleus asiaticus density,with the best projection direction a at 0.6547.There was a significant linear relationship (P <0.01)between the projection eigenvalue (Zi )and grasshopper density (y =48.861x -18.937,R=0.9509).The occurrence of grasshoppers can be predicted according to the projec-tion eigenvalue (Zi ).The bigger the value of Zi ,the higher the risk of grasshopper occurrence.The projection pursuit model can be used to eliminate the effect of irrelevant variables.Its application will play an important role in monitoring and early warning for the ecological management of grasshoppers.