CAJ | 학술논문

以滨州市2000-2012年耕地面积、人口数量、粮食产量等数据为基础，运用相关分析法分析了滨州市耕地资源与粮食安全的现状及其两者之间的相互关系，得出滨州市耕地面积和粮食产量呈显著的负相关关系；运用回归分析对2015-2024年滨州市的上述内容进行预测，结论是：到2040年，滨州市耕地面积、粮食播种面积、人均耕地面积呈减少趋势，而粮食产量和人均粮食产量呈增加的态势，人均粮食产量大于实际人均需求量0.332t/人，粮食需求有所保证，粮食补助、耕地保护政策和耕地集约高效利用是其主要原因.同时指出，滨州市耕地面积的持续减少必将威胁到粮食安全问题和经济社会的可持续发展，必须加强耕地保护力度.
이빈주시2000-2012년경지면적、인구수량、양식산량등수거위기출，운용상관분석법분석료빈주시경지자원여양식안전적현상급기량자지간적상호관계，득출빈주시경지면적화양식산량정현저적부상관관계；운용회귀분석대2015-2024년빈주시적상술내용진행예측，결론시：도2040년，빈주시경지면적、양식파충면적、인균경지면적정감소추세，이양식산량화인균양식산량정증가적태세，인균양식산량대우실제인균수구량0.332t/인，양식수구유소보증，양식보조、경지보호정책화경지집약고효이용시기주요원인.동시지출，빈주시경지면적적지속감소필장위협도양식안전문제화경제사회적가지속발전，필수가강경지보호력도.
Based on the relevant data concerning the cultivated land acreage,population,grain output and etc.of the Binzhou city,analysis is made of the status quo of the land resources,food security and the relationship in between by means of the correlation analysis.It is concluded that there exists a significantly negative correlation between the cultivated land acreage and grain yield in Binzhou.The regression analysis of the relevant data is used to predict the conditions of the years between 201 5 and 2024,and the findings are as followed:Binzhou is to undergo a decreasing trend in terms of its cultivated land acre-age,grain acreage,per capita cultivated land acreage,while the grain yield and per capita grain output will see an upgoing trend with the per capita grain output surpassing the actually needed amount of 0.332t per person,indicating the food security is free of worry,which owes much to the policy of farmland protection and grain subsidy and the efficient use and intensive manage-ment of farmland.It is also pointed out that the constant decrease of cultivated land acreage of Binzhou city will surely pose a threat to its food security and sustainable development of economy and society,and efforts should be stepped up in farmland protection.