资源与生态学报(英文版)
資源與生態學報(英文版)
자원여생태학보(영문판)
JOURNAL OF RESOURCES AND ECOLOGY
2015年
3期
146-154
,共9页
隐含碳净出口%投入产出模型%LMDI分解%GTAP8%中国
隱含碳淨齣口%投入產齣模型%LMDI分解%GTAP8%中國
은함탄정출구%투입산출모형%LMDI분해%GTAP8%중국
embodied carbon emissions%input-output model%LMDI decomposition%GTAP8%China
本文使用投入产出模型,基于最新的GTAP8数据库,分析了2004年和2007年中国与发达国家和发展中国家贸易隐含碳流向、结构及变化,结果显示中国均为隐含碳净出口国。基于LMDI法对隐含碳净出口进一步分解发现,影响中国对发达国家和发展中国家隐含碳净出口的因素不同,贸易顺差和排放系数差异是导致中国对发达国家隐含碳净出口的关键因素,行业结构差异和排放系数差异是影响中国对发展中国家净出口的关键原因。这与发达国家、中国和其他发展中国家在全球产业链中的分工密切相关。2004-2007年,中国出口结构逐渐转向高端制造业,生产技术逐渐接近发达国家水平。未来随着中国国内技术进步和产业升级、出口结构优化,隐含碳净出口将会下降,贸易对中国碳排放的驱动力会减弱。
本文使用投入產齣模型,基于最新的GTAP8數據庫,分析瞭2004年和2007年中國與髮達國傢和髮展中國傢貿易隱含碳流嚮、結構及變化,結果顯示中國均為隱含碳淨齣口國。基于LMDI法對隱含碳淨齣口進一步分解髮現,影響中國對髮達國傢和髮展中國傢隱含碳淨齣口的因素不同,貿易順差和排放繫數差異是導緻中國對髮達國傢隱含碳淨齣口的關鍵因素,行業結構差異和排放繫數差異是影響中國對髮展中國傢淨齣口的關鍵原因。這與髮達國傢、中國和其他髮展中國傢在全毬產業鏈中的分工密切相關。2004-2007年,中國齣口結構逐漸轉嚮高耑製造業,生產技術逐漸接近髮達國傢水平。未來隨著中國國內技術進步和產業升級、齣口結構優化,隱含碳淨齣口將會下降,貿易對中國碳排放的驅動力會減弱。
본문사용투입산출모형,기우최신적GTAP8수거고,분석료2004년화2007년중국여발체국가화발전중국가무역은함탄류향、결구급변화,결과현시중국균위은함탄정출구국。기우LMDI법대은함탄정출구진일보분해발현,영향중국대발체국가화발전중국가은함탄정출구적인소불동,무역순차화배방계수차이시도치중국대발체국가은함탄정출구적관건인소,행업결구차이화배방계수차이시영향중국대발전중국가정출구적관건원인。저여발체국가、중국화기타발전중국가재전구산업련중적분공밀절상관。2004-2007년,중국출구결구축점전향고단제조업,생산기술축점접근발체국가수평。미래수착중국국내기술진보화산업승급、출구결구우화,은함탄정출구장회하강,무역대중국탄배방적구동력회감약。
Based on the most current GTAP8 database, we analyzed flow, structure and change in trade-embodied carbon emissions between China and the developed world and the developing world from 2004 to 2007 using input-output model. We found that China was always a net embodied emissions exporting country over this period. Based on the LMDI decomposition method, we found that factors influencing net embodied emissions exported from China to developed countries and developing countries differ. Trade surpluses and differences in emissions factors were vital in determining net embodied emissions exported from China to the developed world. Differences in export structures and emissions factors were key factors inlfuencing net emissions between China and developing countries. These were closely related to respective divisions amongst developed countries, China and other developing countries in the global industrial chain. From 2004 to 2007, the export structure of China was transformed to high-end manufacturing with domestic producing technology gradually approaching the level of developed countries. With further technological improvement, industrial upgrades and export structure optimization in China, the net export of embodied carbon emissions will decrease and the driving forces of trade for China’s domestic carbon emissions wil decline.