技术经济与管理研究
技術經濟與管理研究
기술경제여관리연구
TECHNOECONOMICS & MANAGEMENT RESEARCH
2015年
6期
124-128
,共5页
国内旅游%旅游消费%旅游经济%产业经济
國內旅遊%旅遊消費%旅遊經濟%產業經濟
국내여유%여유소비%여유경제%산업경제
Domestic travel%Tourism consumption%Tourism economy%Industrial economy
国内旅游业的发展对于增加最终消费、促进就业、带动相关产业、推动经济增长具有重要的意义。因此，文章利用状态空间模型对1985-2013年我国国内旅游消费与经济增长间的动态关系进行了研究，得出以下结论：国内旅游消费和经济增长间存在变参数协整关系；国内旅游消费与经济增长间的动态弹性系数呈逐年上升趋势，1985-1993年弹性系数增长速度较快，而1994-2013年弹性系数增长速度有所减缓，表明国内旅游业的发展对于经济增长具有正向、积极的促进作用，且促进作用逐年增加。状态空间模型的估计结果很好地反映了国内旅游消费与经济增长间的动态影响规律。今后应加大旅游投资力度，透过投资引领和促进旅游消费，不断完善和丰富旅游产品体系，满足游客多层次的旅游需求，从而提升城乡居民旅游消费水平，促进内需和经济增长。
國內旅遊業的髮展對于增加最終消費、促進就業、帶動相關產業、推動經濟增長具有重要的意義。因此，文章利用狀態空間模型對1985-2013年我國國內旅遊消費與經濟增長間的動態關繫進行瞭研究，得齣以下結論：國內旅遊消費和經濟增長間存在變參數協整關繫；國內旅遊消費與經濟增長間的動態彈性繫數呈逐年上升趨勢，1985-1993年彈性繫數增長速度較快，而1994-2013年彈性繫數增長速度有所減緩，錶明國內旅遊業的髮展對于經濟增長具有正嚮、積極的促進作用，且促進作用逐年增加。狀態空間模型的估計結果很好地反映瞭國內旅遊消費與經濟增長間的動態影響規律。今後應加大旅遊投資力度，透過投資引領和促進旅遊消費，不斷完善和豐富旅遊產品體繫，滿足遊客多層次的旅遊需求，從而提升城鄉居民旅遊消費水平，促進內需和經濟增長。
국내여유업적발전대우증가최종소비、촉진취업、대동상관산업、추동경제증장구유중요적의의。인차，문장이용상태공간모형대1985-2013년아국국내여유소비여경제증장간적동태관계진행료연구，득출이하결론：국내여유소비화경제증장간존재변삼수협정관계；국내여유소비여경제증장간적동태탄성계수정축년상승추세，1985-1993년탄성계수증장속도교쾌，이1994-2013년탄성계수증장속도유소감완，표명국내여유업적발전대우경제증장구유정향、적겁적촉진작용，차촉진작용축년증가。상태공간모형적고계결과흔호지반영료국내여유소비여경제증장간적동태영향규률。금후응가대여유투자력도，투과투자인령화촉진여유소비，불단완선화봉부여유산품체계，만족유객다층차적여유수구，종이제승성향거민여유소비수평，촉진내수화경제증장。
Developing the domestic tourism has an important meaning for increasing the final consumption, and promoting employ-ment, arousing the development of the related industry and pushing the economic growth. Therefore, the paper researches the dynamic relation between the Chinese domestic tourism consumption and economic growth on the basis of the state space model from 1985 to 2013. It gets some conclusions: there is a variable parameters cointegration between domestic tourism consumption and economic growth;dynamic elasticity coefficient shows an upward trend year after year, which has a faster growth speed from 1985 to1993, while its growth rate has slowed down from1994 to 2013, showing that the domestic tourism consumption has an active promotion to the economic growth. Estimation results of the state space model can well reveal the dynamic rule that the domestic tourism consumption affects the economic growth. In the future, we should increase tourism investment which leads and promotes tourism consumption, enrich the tourism products system and meet the tourists' needs and multi-level tourism demand so as to increase the tourism consumption of urban and rural residents and promote domestic demand and economic growth.
